649
FXUS65 KGGW 102003
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
203 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
LAST UPDATED: 1930Z
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 122 AND
137 THROUGH 8 PM MDT TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A STRONGER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLUX.
DON
DISCUSSION
TODAY: TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS NEARING MID TO UPPER 80S. AFTERNOON AND EVENING HUMIDITY
WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT TONIGHT,
SPECIFICALLY FOR FIRE ZONES 122 AND 137.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION WITH INCREASING RAIN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20%-60%
CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA) IN AREAS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF I-94. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED ALOFT, MAY POTENTIALLY HEIGHTEN POPS.
SATURDAY: EXPECT A BRIEF PAUSE IN RAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS AN OVERUNNING EVENT BEGINS WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE.
SW FLOW WILL TRACK A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH OUR AREA WITH
HIGHER POPS (60%-70%) WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THERE IS A
RANGE OF POSSIBLE QPF THAT IS VARYING MODEL TO MODEL. NBM IS
TRENDING HIGHER, AT 0.25" - 1". MEANWHILE, OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM, SUGGEST MORE CONSERVATIVE
ESTIMATES AT THREE-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
TUESDAY MOVING FORWARD: COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID- WEEK WHEN A SIGNAL FOR A RIDGE TO THE WEST BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR A CHINOOK TO WARM US BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMS SOMETIME
AROUND WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
A MINI DEVIATION TO NBM FOR MINRH WAS PERFORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER TO MATCH UP WITH THE BYZ OFFICE FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES HAVE INCREASED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY, ALBEIT A SMALL INCREASE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LOW RH VALUES AND WINDY CONDITIONS RAISING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND AMOUNT OF QPF OF
SPECIFIC SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY, INCLUDING SUNDAY EVENING
REGARDING AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
FINDLEY
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT NE MONTANA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DECREASE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REACH A MINIMUM FRIDAY MORNING AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WIND: W AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER NW-N TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO 06 TO 12 KT
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. FURTHER VEERING TO N-NE WILL OCCUR
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS REBOUND TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 22 KT.
LLWS: WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGGW AND KOLF BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING AND LASTING OVERNIGHT.
DON
FIRE WEATHER
LAST UPDATED: 1915Z
WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER
IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 122 AND 137 THROUGH 8 PM MDT TONIGHT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND
THEN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH NEXT WEEK, REDUCING CONCERN FROM THEN
ONWARD.
DON
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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