763
FXUS65 KGGW 152201
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
401 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK, MOVING
IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITING OVER THE WEEKEND. 0.50" TO 1.00"
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION
SYNOPTIC SETUP:
A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CWA, BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID- TO-UPPER 60S INTO THE 70S THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPENING TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE TO CUT-OFF AND DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH BETWEEN 0.50" TO 1.00" IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE PLACES IN THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR BELOW. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE SHOWING SOME DRYING AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE MODERATE. THERE IS A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
OF THE CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE MOVING FURTHER INTO WESTERN ZONES.
- CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW AS MODELS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SET UP.
KENZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1657Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT AGL. MFVR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.
SFC WIND: NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSITION TO EAST WINDS BY 21Z. THEN, WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page