904
FXUS65 KGGW 160600
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1200 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY BRIEFLY
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRIEFLY TODAY.
- GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITING
OVER THE WEEKEND. 0.50" TO 1.00" AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
SYNOPTIC SETUP:
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CLOSING
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS TROUGH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASK. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY BUT A FEW SPRINKLES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM WHITEWATER TO PLENTYWOOD TODAY.
ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES STARTING TO RECOVER A BIT.
THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MONTANA BY THIS WEEKEND
WITH AMOUNTS FROM 0.50" TO 1.25" IN MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE WEST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW BY MONDAY FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER SLIGHT BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- NBM POPS WERE TOO DRY INITIALLY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, SO
BLENDED WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH TODAY (WEDNESDAY). OTHER NBM
ELEMENTS LOOKED GOOD.
- CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE MODERATE. THERE IS A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
OF THE CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE MOVING FURTHER INTO WESTERN ZONES.
- CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS ARE INCREASING BUT REMAIN INCONSISTENT
OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0550Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC WIND: EAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 10 KTS BUT HIGHER AT
KSDY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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