911
FXUS65 KGGW 162042
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
242 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW WITH EAST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY EVENING AND BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 0.50" TO 1.00" AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
SYNOPTIC SETUP:
GRADUAL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FORT PECK LAKE WITH EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIAN REGION AND IS BEING CLOSED OFF BY A GRADUAL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD. THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO
MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER ON FRIDAY MORNING, THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE 0.50" TO 1.00" OF
TOTAL RAINFALL, BUT THE LATEST NBM RUN HIGHLIGHTS EASTERN ZONES OF
THE CWA EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN. THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM
SHOWS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SEEING OVER TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES WHERE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE MODERATE AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
- CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS IS INCREASING, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP.
KENZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1804Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, THEN A TRANSITION TO MVFR THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION: MORNING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED
NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVER KSDY AND KGDV
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO
1.00" ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SFC WIND: NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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