568
FXUS65 KGGW 170535
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1135 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY EVENING AND BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 0.50" TO 1.00" AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
SYNOPTIC SETUP:
GRADUAL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MAY SNEAK INTO SOME EASTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING EVAPORATES IT BY NOON. EAST WINDS WERE INCREASING AND
SHOULD SEE THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE WITH EAST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD SOAK THOSE AREAS BETTER
THAN OUR CWA. BUT WE SHOULD SEE OUR FAIRSHARE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIAN REGION AND IS BEING CLOSED OFF BY A GRADUAL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD. THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO
MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER ON FRIDAY MORNING, THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG OR AT LEAST LOW CLOUD CEILINGS MAY PLAGUE
MAINLY EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE 0.50" TO 1.00" OF
TOTAL RAINFALL, BUT THE LATEST NBM RUN HIGHLIGHTS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES TO RECEIVE THE MOST WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS OVER THE NW
ZONES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES WHERE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- MIXED TODAY'S WINDS WITH NBM90, OTHERWISE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
WERE DEFAULTED TO NBM.
- CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE MODERATE AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
- CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS IS INCREASING, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO CREATE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN IN SOME AREAS.
TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0500Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: TODAY SHOULD FEATURE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD VISIBILITY
AND VFR CLOUDS OVER KSDY AND KGDV. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG COULD
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CLOUDS FRIDAY.
SFC WIND: EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY REACHING 15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.
TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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