644
FXUS65 KGGW 061839
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1239 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IF FIRES WERE TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK, SMOKE COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE LIGHT HAZE IN OUR REGION.
- OVERCAST SKIES, POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION, AND LOW TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
- WEEKEND PRECIPIATION WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN, WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IF FIRES WERE TO DEVELOP NEARBY, THE HRRR
AND RAP ANTICIPATE SMOKE POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIGHT HAZE IN OUR
REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXIT THE ALEUTIAN
REGION AND DIG OVER THE PNW. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DECREASING MARGINALLY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENED RIDGE
CRESTS OVER NE MONTANA.
THE WARMTH WILL NOT LAST. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PNW LOW DIGS AS FAR AS POINT
CONCEPTION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE SUBSEQUENT
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE CWA BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONT. OVERCAST
SKIES, POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION, AND LOW TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN LATE SATURDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DIVING INTO
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S, NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. IF SNOW OCCURS, TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH; MELT WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING BEGINNING TO REBOUND TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
FORECASTS BEYOND SATURDAY BECOME LESS CERTAIN DUE TO ENSEMBLE
INCONSISTENCIES. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, POTENTIALLY
STALLING TROUGH PROPAGATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN COOLER/WETTER
CONDITIONS LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- NO CHANGES FROM NBM.
- THERE IS MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE (30-50%) IN FRONTAL TIMING
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90%) IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (50-80%) IN ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURING BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: FEW/SCT MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SCT/BKN LOW-TO-MID CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CLEARING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
FEW/SCT LOW-TO-MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT MOST STATIONS. NW WINDS AT 06 TO 12 KT AT KSDY AND KGDV THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND NE AT 05
TO 10 KT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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