849
FXUS65 KGGW 082046
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR FIRE ZONE 137.
- MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TRACE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
- POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY PM:
WEAK RIDGING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA BY
FRIDAY MORNING, ADVECTING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TOWARDS OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TYING/BREAKING
FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD (84 DEGREES - 2004) AS
TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK INTO THE UPPER-80S ON FRIDAY. THIS DOES POSE
A FIRE WEATHER RISK POTENTIAL; HIGH TEMPERATURES, LOW RH VALUES,
AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FOR
FIRE ZONE 137.
FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING:
AFTER FRIDAY, ANTICIPATE A STEEP TEMPERATURE DROP OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A MODEST COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN, DUE TO CONSISTENT CAA.
SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL BE FAVORED WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH,
ORIGINATING IN BC, ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THEN AN EASTWARD MOTION.
THIS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT, CAUSING RAIN AND
TRANSITIONING INTO A WINTRY MIX. THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SOME AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE LOCALLY ENHANCED LIFT WITH VORTICITY WITH EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS AT THE MID-LEVELS. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY ONWARDS:
DUE TO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR EAST, THIS MAY STALL A
TROUGH COMPLEX AND ELEVATE EXISTING CHANCES OF QPF. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN MAY INCREASE POPS CHANCES FURTHER, SHOULD PWAT
VALUES INCREASE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONTINUED CAA SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FORESEEABLE FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR THE TIME BEING,
ALBEIT AFTER FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
-INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY.
-DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
-CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
FIN
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2040Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS AND QUIET WEATHER IS TO BE
EXPECTED. GA SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY VISIBILITY OR LLWS ISSUES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
WINDS:
KGGW - VARIABLE WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING SE BY FRIDAY
AT 03Z.
KGDV, KSDY, AND KOLF - LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, SHIFTING SOUTH
AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS. VEERING SE BY FRIDAY AT 18Z.
FIN
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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