576
FXUS65 KGGW 090623
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1223 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR FIRE ZONE 137.
- POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY.
- MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TRACE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
WEAK RIDGING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS MORNING,
ADVECTING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED DOWNSLOPING WINDS
TOWARDS OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TYING/BREAKING FRIDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD IN GLASGOW (84 DEGREES - 2004) AS
TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK INTO THE UPPER-80S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
ALSO POSES SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK POTENTIAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURE, LOW RH, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE WEATHER IN ZONE
137. HOWEVER, WINDS THEMSELVES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME SPAN.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING: ANTICIPATE A STEEP
TEMPERATURE DROP OFF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIFT
ALONG AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL BEGIN CAUSING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AT
HIGHER ELEVATION SUNDAY NIGHT. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT ACCUMULATION AT MOST LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES ARE NOT LIKELY WITH WARM GROUND.
TUESDAY ONWARDS: ENSEMBLE DATA SETS BEGIN TO FALL OUT OF PHASE
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVER
ALL. WHAT LITTLE IS STARTING TO SHOW IS A WEAK RIDGING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BRIEFLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH WAVE SOMEWHERE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POP CHANCES OVER CLIMO ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THROUGHOUT THESE
PERIODS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS FROM NBM OCCURED.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FIN/GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0400Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FROM 08 TO 15Z FOR A COUPLE
HOURS WITH A LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHANCES(20-60%) ARE TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN MOST TERMINALS DIRECTLY.
DISCUSSION: MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND QUIET WEATHER IS TO BE
EXPECTED.
WINDS: S TO E AND LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. VEERING SW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CALMING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY
THIS EVENING. VEERING NW AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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