800
FXUS65 KGGW 100540
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1140 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WETTING
RAINS ARE LIKELY, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A MIX WITH WET SNOW.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS FAR WEST AS
THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY FROM TERRY TO GLENDIVE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE NE
MONTANA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
THE LOW EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE PLAINS, RESULTING IN A SORT OF SPLIT FLOW.
THAT NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS PLAYS OUT
LOOK FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES
FALL, LOOK FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE WETTING RAINS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD, WITH NBM MEAN SOLUTION NOW AROUND AND
EXCEEDING 0.50" QPF SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM TAKES THE EXIT BY TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS THE YELLOWSTONE
CORRIDOR WITHIN OUR CWA FROM TERRY TO GLENDIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES, BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER, OR ANY ACCUMULATION,
SAVE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK AS ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING SPREAD AT LARGER TIME
SCALES. IT IS POSSIBLE THE LOW TRACKS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT, OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WILL BE MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS FOR ANY
TRENDS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0531Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, THEN MVFR OVER KGGW AND KOLF
DISCUSSION: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY IN KGGW, KOLF, AND KGDV.
WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FOR MOST OF THE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AROUND KOLF, KGDV, AND KSDY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER
10Z AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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