721
FXUS65 KGGW 102144
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
344 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER, NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED THIS
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN US. SUBSEQUENT
MOISTURE-LADDEN SW FLOW WITH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED MINOR PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE
FLOW MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF GREATER PRECIPITATION. POLAR
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
RAIN TOTALS THIS WEEKEND HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA. SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM STICKING, THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT AS A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS POINT
ONWARD. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WILL BRING MORE THAN EXPECTED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES, BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER, OR ANY ACCUMULATION,
SAVE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
DEVIATIONS IN QPF ARE TRENDING HIGHER VERSUS PRIOR MODEL RUNS.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK AS ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING SPREAD AT LARGER TIME
SCALES. IT IS POSSIBLE THE LOW TRACKS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT, OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WILL BE MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS FOR ANY
TRENDS.
FIN/DON
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2144Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR FOR KOLF, KGDV AND KSDY. MVFR, IFR AT
TIMES, FOR KGGW
DISCUSSION: VFR TRANSITIONS TO MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT CEILINGS OF 9,000 FT DOWN TO 6,000 FT BY THIS EVENING. KGGW
MAY HAVE OVERCAST CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900 FT TOMORROW MORNING. AN
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY EVENING AT
KGGW AND KOLF, WHICH MAY CAUSE DECREASED VISIBILITIES. AN AIRMET
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY FOR ICING (ALL STATIONS).
WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
NE. WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AT 10-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ICING: LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, ICING ABOVE 8,000 FT IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MODERATE ICING ABOVE 12,000
FT.
FIN/DON
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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