457
FXUS65 KGGW 110654
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1254 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND AREAS OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS CONTINUING TO
DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS SETUP HAS ALLOWED FOR
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO MONTANA. COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION, SOME SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY OCCURING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST QPF TOTALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE REGION
COULD SEE AS MUCH AS HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
INITIALLY MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. RAIN WILL
THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES
AS TEMPERATURES FALL WHILE WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE CONCENTRATED IN NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
ACCUMULATIONS OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, AS WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT SNOWFALL FROM STICKING TO THE
GROUND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TERRAIN-ENHANCED LIFT MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES, PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS DESCRIBED. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY, THOUGH A WIDE RANGE IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS IS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DUE TO COLD CANADIAN AIR LINGERING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
UP AS AN UPPER- LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY ARE HIGH
BUT DECREASES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND BECOMES LOW BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDS ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER, PRECIPITATION
TYPE, TIMING, AND SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES
COULD TREND COOLER THAN FORECASTED DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
EFFECTS, HOWEVER, WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN AND WILL
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM STICKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE LITTLE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR CHANGES IN WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
KENZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0610Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
DISCUSSION: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP IN OVER KGDV BY 15Z, FOLLOWED BY KGGW AND KOLF AT 17Z. KGGW
AND KOLF COULD HAVE OVERCAST CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900 FT TOMORROW
MORNING AND KGDV AS LOW AS 600 FT. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK UP TO
MVFR HEIGHTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN
TO IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AT 10-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
ICING: G-AIRMETS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL TERMINALS. MODERATE
ICING CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 5,000 FT IN KGGW AND KOLF AND DECREASE
TO 3,000 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT MODERATE ICING ABOVE
11,000 FT OVER KSDY AND KGDV.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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