674
FXUS65 KGGW 120448
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1048 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR
NORTHERN PHILLIPS, NORTHERN VALLEY, AND SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS
COUNTIES.
- PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD
OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT HALF
AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN
WIBAUX AND SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN MORE LIKELY IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE
ROCKIES.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT, PROVIDING AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS BILLINGS AND GREAT FALLS WHERE HEAVY
SNOWFALL HAS ACCUMULATED OVER HIGHWAYS.
ACROSS THE GLASGOW CWA, RAINFALL IS STILL BEING OBSERVED AND
TIMING ON A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START MIXING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE, ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY BE
HEIGHTENED ESPECIALLY IN HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AREA CAMERAS SNOW ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
HIGHWAY 191 SOUTH OF MALTA NEAR ZORTMAN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE ON FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A WIDE
RANGE EXPECTED DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ELEVATION AS WELL AS MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES.
FORECAST QPF TOTALS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD, AND MUCH OF
THE REGION CAN ANTICIPATE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. WIBAUX AND SOUTHEASTERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE. SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN MORE CONCENTRATED IN AREAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE, WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE MUCH
SNOW DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS,
NORTHERN PHILLIPS, AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN
HIGH. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAIN ON EXACT TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER, PRECIPITATION
TYPE, TIMING, AND SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO COOLER-
THAN-FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAIN AND WILL PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES DRASTICALLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY, SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS MID- WEEK ONWARD.
KENZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0445Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
DISCUSSION: PERIODS OF RAIN, POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH WET SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL. ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND
LOW CEILINGS WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
WINDS: NE AT 10 TO 15 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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