818
FXUS65 KGGW 161947
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
147 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES, PEAKING
ON SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON SATURDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS A SURFACE HIGH EXITS OUR REGION, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE TO ADVECT COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR CWA TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT, CAUSING A WEAK REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST US, WILL PROMOTE NW FLOW ALOFT. A RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD AND DISRUPT THIS NW FLOW ALOFT, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER SW
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. RIDGING CONDITIONS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT, WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MAY
LOCALLY HEIGHTEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
THE REX BLOCK SETUP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW; CAUSING THE
FLOW TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS THAT CANNOT MAINTAIN WARM TEMPERATURES,
DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF A RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, EXPECT A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
MONDAY, ONWARD.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE COME TUESDAY,
DIGGING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION.
THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE SW/SSW FLOW ALOFT, CREATING RIDGING
CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR OUR CWA. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO ADVECT THEIR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US
TO OUR REGION. EXPECT DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS REMAINING UNCHANGING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES DEVIATING HIGHER IN LATEST RUNS OF NBM, REGARDING
NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER WEDNESDAY, NWP GUIDANCE BEGINS TO PROMPT OBVIOUS
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS, AS FOR POPS, HEIGHTS,
AND A WIDER SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN.
FINDLEY
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH SOME BRIEF VFR CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN KGGW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT THEN VEER BACK
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, PARTICULARLY IN
KSDY AND KGDV.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE
KGDV TERMINAL BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BEING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AREAS AROUND KSDY
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO BE PUT INTO THE TAF.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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