626
FXUS65 KGGW 170630
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1230 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- BREEZY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE
CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, BRINGING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE CAUSING UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN. ASSUMING EFFICIENT MIXING GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CLEAR SKIES, BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE SURFACE. FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
INCREASED, NOTABLY IN PETROLEUM AND PHILIPS COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE
IN A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SHORT PERIOD OF
BOTH LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THAT SAID, WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF A CHINOOK ARCH AND LEE
TROUGH, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST
EVEN WITH THE EFFECTS OF PREFRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS
WOULD RAISE MIN RH VALUES AND LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BY SUNDAY A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN RETURNS WITH A BRIEF DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WEAK RIDING RETURNS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE
WEST COAST. BY MIDWEEK FLOW WILL SPLIT WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHERN NEAR ZONAL FLOW. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
ONSHORE AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND PULL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
RAISED DAY 1 TEMPERATURES AND WINDS, AND LOWERED RH.
GIVEN THE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY
HIGH THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ANY PRECIP
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0530Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR PERIODS OF
SCT TO FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING EAST OVER TAF SITES.
WIND: LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING WEST AT 15 - 20 KTS AFTER
15Z. WINDS LIGHTEN TO 10 - 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
LLWS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AROUND KGDV IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 9Z.
AREAS OF LLWS OVER TAF SITES REACH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 04Z
AND 10Z TOMORROW.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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