475
FXUS63 KGID 060600
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 7-8 DAYS, AT LEAST.
- EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LEAD TO A SHARP, BUT RELATIVELY
BRIEF, COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THE ONLY REAL "HAZARDOUS WEATHER" TO SPEAK OF WILL BE STRONG
NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45+ MPH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
ALLOWING WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3PM ARE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND, OR EVEN A TOUCH
ABOVE, NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE SRLY, WHICH WILL HELP
TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING. MODESTLY BREEZY
S/SW WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY, LIKELY IN THE 60S AREA WIDE, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
LOW 70S FAR W/SW. "FEELS LIKE" CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THOUGH, GIVEN THE BREEZE AND CONTINUED HIGH
LEVEL SKY COVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE (EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY
ACTIVE/FAST ZONAL/NW FLOW) WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THU
EVE/NIGHT. THIS IS A PACIFIC-BASED SYSTEM WITH NOT A LOT OF
PUNCH TO IT, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR ON
FRIDAY AS ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY
SOME DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO WNW-NW WINDS. AFTERNOON WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY, ESP. N OF I-80, BUT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AM. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW, BUT NON-
ZERO, CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS N AND E OF THE
TRI-CITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR
OUR AREA AS THE DEEPER COLD AIR, FOR US, WILL LAG THE PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS. DAKOTAS INTO MN AND N IA COULD BE A DIFFERENT
STORY. BY FAR, THOUGH, THE GREATEST WEATHER IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM FOR US WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD, STRONG NW WINDS. LATEST
NBM CALLS FOR 40-70+ PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS >40 MPH, AND
10-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS >50 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST RANGE
OF CHANCES BEING W THROUGH NW OF THE TRI-CITIES. WOULD NOT AT
ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PLACE LIKE ORD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE
LOW 50S. ELSEWHERE, SHOULD BE MAINLY 35-50 MPH. WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY KEEPING RHS MOSTLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, STILL
THINK AREAS ALONG/SW OF A ARAPAHOE TO OSBORNE LINE WILL HAVE AT
LEAST ELEVATED CONCERNS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITIES AROUND 25
TO 30 PERCENT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING (CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS) AND SOME OF THE COLDEST LOWS IN QUITE SOME TIME.
OFFICIAL NBM HAS NOW DROPPED TO 19F AT ORD, BUT KEEPS TRI-CITIES
AND S IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WILL PROBABLY SEE THESE TREND
LOWER AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, COULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RISING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70S. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POTENTIALLY COOLER AND PERHAPS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN TOWARDS THE 17TH-20TH, BUT OBVIOUSLY DETAILS ARE NOT
POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA APPROACHING THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN STEADY NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. WHILE THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK LLJ IN
MODEL DATA, SO FAR THE VWP IS NOT INDICATING AND WS OUT THERE AT
THE MOMENT AND EXPECT ANY LLWS THAT DEVELOPS TO REMAIN MARGINAL,
SO DID NOT INTRODUCE THIS INTO 6Z TAFS. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST
TO NEAR 25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY, DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...SR
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