009
FXUS63 KGID 070535
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1135 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CLOUDS ALL DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 50S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THAT
HAD MORE EARLY DAY SUNSHINE WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S.
- BEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY (SUNNY/60S) AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (60S) AS WE
EVENTUALLY WARM BACK UP AFTER SEVERAL COLD DAYS POST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- WINDY/COLD WEEKEND WEATHER: WINDY (GUSTS TO 45 MPH) AND COOLER
FOR SATURDAY (50S), WITH POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY (HIGHS UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S).
- MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAY 7, BUT A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN (20% CHANCE
TRACE-0.05") LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY NE OF THE TRI- CITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
LOWERED HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
AREAS, WHERE HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER EAST FROM HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AND POINTS
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST WE HAVE SEEN MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
EARLIER IN THE DAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S BEFORE
HOLDING STEADY AND EVEN FALLING A BIT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN.
THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN DIEING DOWN AND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
TONIGHT...
THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT (~6 KTS), AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
FRIDAY...
THIS WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MID 60 DEGREE HIGHS
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL SPREAD IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. WEST NORTHWEST WIND OF 10-15 MPH COULD END UP BEING A
LITTLE MORE GUSTY THAN FORECAST AT TIMES, BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 25% FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES COULD GET US CLOSER TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER, BUT OUR LIGHTEST WINDS <15KTS ARE GENERALLY ACROSS
THESE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES, WHILE OUR HIGHER WINDS (20 KTS) ARE
ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE RH VALUES ARE AROUND 30%. THEREFORE,
ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FUNNEL DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND THE NBM IS LIKELY TOO LOW WITH POST
FRONTAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS. THEREFORE, WENT WITH A
NBM/NBM90 BLEND FOR WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO GET STRONGER WINDS
INTO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. THE COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SO ALTHOUGH COLDER ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S WITH AN OVERALL RATHER
TIGHT/LOW NBM SPREAD FOR SATURDAY HIGHS.
THE 500 MB VORT MAX WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO IOWA WITH MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES CONTINUE
TO GET A 20% NBM POP FOR LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY A TRACE-0.05", BUT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FAIL TO SEE ANY
KIND OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. INTERESTINGLY, THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE DANGER SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE 25-30% RANGE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS. RH
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER (35-50%) FROM THE TRI-CITIES NORTHEAST, SO
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THAT COMBINATION OF LOW RH / HIGH WINDS
WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OF 18 NORTH TO 27 SOUTH, AND IN THE TEENS
ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HARD FREEZE COULD CERTAINLY BREAK
EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES IF ANYONE HASN'T WINTERIZED THEIR
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS YET. THE NBM SPREAD FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY IS
ONLY 35-41F, WHICH WOULD BY FAR BE THE COLDEST DAY SO FAR THIS
FALL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THANKFULLY THIS COLD BLAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN A QUICK WARM UP NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
60S AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, GOOD VSBYS AND WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS.
WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 10KFT CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM
OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AROUND 12-15Z. WINDS AT THE MOMENT ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN JUST A BIT
BY DAYBREAK...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY NEAR
10KTS...INCREASING WITH GUSTS 20KTS+ DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS
SKIES CLEAR AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED. LIGHT WINDS AND
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (AFT ABOUT 07/23Z).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...SR
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