317
FXUS63 KGID 081059
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
459 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BRING BIG CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND - INCLUDING
STRONG NW WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS LIKELY SUNDAY AM!
- AFTER BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TEENS MONDAY AM (AND POSSIBLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS),
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ARE EXPECTED TUE-SAT.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY (WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED).
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE FOLLOWING 7+
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A FEW SPRINKLES MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE SINCE PUSHED TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS OF
4 AM CST. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE,
LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING - OTHER THAN SOME WET STREETS WHICH CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA CAMERAS IN SPOTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST REACHING WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY BY MID-MORNING.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE NOTICABLY GUSTY TO START THE DAY, WINDS ARE
REALLY ANTICIPATED TO SURGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS AFTERNOON PUSH (SEE LATEST HRRR),
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST AFTER NOON, WITH GUST TO 45 MPH, OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER, LIKELY LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED,
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWER RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SPOTS, ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT, LIMITING TRUE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, MOST
MESO-SCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS AREA OF SOUTH DAKOTA,
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING, INITIALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR
FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH OF
I-80, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY. SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ENDING AS ANY TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS LOCALLY, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAVING
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW EXTENDING
FROM GREELEY TO POLK COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. BY FAR, THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST LATER
TODAY (OUTSIDE OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA).
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY, A VERY COLD
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY IN THE 30S (WITH EVEN COLDER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S) IS ANTICIPATED. AS WINDS THEN DROP OFF AND
SKIES CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, A VERY COLD START
(WIDESPREAD TEENS) IS ANTICIPATED AREA WIDE MONDAY MORNING. IN
FACT, SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SINGLE DIGITS FOR OUR
TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS (MAV & MEX HAVE 5 DEGREES IN ORD) TO
START THE DAY. THIS DIVE IN TEMPERATURES, WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST NUDGES INTO THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODEST REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 09-12Z, WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASING. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS, GUSTING 20-25KTS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, GRADUALLY INCREASING
TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS, AND
GUSTING 30-35KTS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ON
SATURDAY, AS GUSTS FALL BELOW 20KTS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BRIEFLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE TAF SITES, AND DECIDED TO KEEP THIS POTENTIAL INDICATED
WITH A FEW-SCT015 MENTION. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 050-100 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET ON SATURDAY, MVFR
STRATUS MOVES INTO KGRI, AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KEAR, AS STRATUS LOOKS
TO STAY JUST NORTH/EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...DAVIS
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