300
FXUS63 KGID 092316
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
516 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING/CALM WINDS, THE COLDEST LOWS
OF THE SEASON (TEENS) ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A MODEST WARM-UP ON MONDAY (40S), UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON (66-72F), AND THE 60S
AND 70S SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALL WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE (20%)
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
TONIGHT...
THE RECENT NBM RUNS HAVE COME UP A FEW DEGREES WITH EXPECTED LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, BUT ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM GIVEN CHANGE IN
AIRMASS, LARGE DEPARTURE FROM RECENT WEATHER, AND NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED TONIGHT. THEREFORE, BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOWERED EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BELOW LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND
EVEN LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE THE COLDEST
AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON.
MONDAY...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WINDS TURN BACK AROUND OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND WARMER AIR BEGIN FLOWING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A COLD START MONDAY MORNING, WE ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS IN WHAT IS A TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED/HIGHER CONFIDENCE NBM FORECAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS PRETTY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH FRIDAY INDICATING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 60S TO
EVEN LOWER 70 DEGREE HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
ARE ALSO NEAR ZERO.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT
COULD BECOME A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAJOR LONG RANGE
MODELS AND THEIR NUMEROUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MIDDLE 50% OF
THE MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE
SPREAD BETWEEN THEM INDICATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY. MOST OF THE
UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND THE TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT THE QUESTIONS ARE DOES IT TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS? WILL IT WRAP
UP INTO A STRONG CLOSED LOW, OR REMAIN OPEN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE? WILL THE TIMING BE FASTER (SATURDAY) OR SLOWER
(SUNDAY). RIGHT NOW GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW (20%). THE 12Z GFS INDICATING SNOW
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
WITH ONLY 1 OUT OF 30 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES WERE ALSO UNIVERSALLY
WARMER AND INDICATING RAIN IF ANYTHING NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW HAVE AROUND 10 PERCENT OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW IN OUR
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. SO WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BUT RIGHT NOW
ONLY A FEW OUTLIERS GIVE US MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 9-12KTS ARE EXPECTED,
STRONGEST AT KEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...DAVIS
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