557
FXUS63 KGID 101743
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MODEST WARM-UP INTO THE 40S ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE AREA (60S & LOW 70S) TUESDAY-FRIDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALL WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
(15-35%) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, BUT
AT THIS TIME, RAIN LOOKS MUCH MORE PROBABLE THAN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING - WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS DETECTED IN MESONET DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF DAWSON
COUNTY. THESE ARE THE COLDEST MORNING TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE LATE FEBRUARY.
FOR THIS MORNING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE, WITH A REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW USHERING IN MODESTLY WARMER AIR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
SHIFTS EAST.
ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE FURTHER AND RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MODELS STILL HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEST COAST
TROUGH/LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
QUITE A SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBER QPF DEPICTIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN, A HANDFUL OF MAINLY EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR SNOW. AT THE MOMENT, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MODEL BLEND USED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADVERTISING FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH A 15-35% CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER BEING OF THE HIGH
LEVEL VARIETY. HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 04-09Z TIME FRAME. LLJ SPEED IS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, THOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VEERING IN
THE LOWEST 2K FT. SRLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE NOW WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO SW LATE TONIGHT, THEN NW BY MID TO LATE TUE AM.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
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