129
FXUS65 KGJT 182331
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
531 PM MDT FRI OCT 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WRAP INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS AREAS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS INCLUDES
AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
TRAVEL IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
- THE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BROUGHT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE RECORD
SETTING HEAT OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI OCT 18 2024
NOTHING LIKE A STRONG FALL CLOSED LOW TO THROW EVERYTHING AT YOU
WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAS HAPPENED TODAY. RAIN...SNOW...SLEET
AND SMALL HAIL HAVE ALL BEEN REPORTED ALONG WITH SOME DECENT
RAINFALL RATES TO RUN WATER DOWN SOME OF THE WASHES OF SOUTHEAST
UTAH. THE UPPER LOW ON THE 12Z HAND ANALYSIS MAP WAS LOCATED
OVER SW.UTAH. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WERE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW THIS CYCLONE HAS
RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY AND DROPPED INTO NW.ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NW
COLORADO TO A LOW OVER THE E.TAVAPUTS...FROM THERE CONNECTED TO
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN E.ARIZONA. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TODAY AND HAS ONLY BULGED A BIT
INTO SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT STILL
BACK TO THE WEST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
SUPPLIED THE SHEAR NECESSARY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHERE
A FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE WARMER AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS ALSO LIMITED THE SNOWFALL PRODUCTION OVER THE SAN
JUANS WITH SNOW LEVELS WAVERING AROUND THE 8500 FOOT MARK LIKELY
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE. SNOTELS SHOW 2-5 INCHES ON SOME
OF THE FAVORED SLOPES WITH SOME SITES STILL STRUGGLING TO
MEASURE. THIS IS MUCH LESS THAN FORECASTS 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO AND
THUS LESS SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERALL WITH SYSTEM THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE MORE
PRODUCTIVE AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AZ AND WAVES OF
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
THE COLD WILL ALSO BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS IT
OCCLUDES AND PROVIDE MORE OF A FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN SPECIFICALLY. THE ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICS SHOULD HELP RELEASE INSTABILITY AND
BRING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT
NORTHWARD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT SNOW
LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND EVEN PRECIPITATION TYPE AT TIMES. THAT SAID
IMPACTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROBABLE ACROSS THE SAN JUAN HIGHWAY
CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SOME MELTING LIKELY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STORM AND FRONT THE COLD
AIR DID HELP PRODUCE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
EASTERN UINTAS WHERE SNOTELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE SO
FAR. ROADWAYS THERE WERE FAIRLY SNOW PACKED THIS MORNING BUT
HAVE SINCE MELTED BACK. DRIER AIR AND LESS SUPPORT OVER THE
FRONT WILL DRAG FARTHER SOUTH INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE SNOW AND RAINFALL COMING TO AN END. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING THE
THESE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN RULED OUT FOR NOW BUT A FEW PLACES
COULD APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY MORNING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE
ARRIVED WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND
WE WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AGAIN
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI OCT 18 2024
SUNDAY MORNING, THE LOW STARTS OUT IN THE SAME QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA, BUT IT WON'T STAY THERE FOR MUCH
LONGER. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, AND THAT NUDGES THE WHOLE PATTERN ALONG,
KICKING OUR CLOSE LOW NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACTS ON
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE. ACCUMULATIONS WON'T BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS PART OF THE STORM, AS THE LOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK
AND MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE GRAND MESA AND FLAT
TOPS COULD SEE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. THE REMAINING
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD SEE A TRACE TO AN INCH. WHILE THESE
TOTALS AREN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, IT'S STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
HEADACHES OVER THE PASSES CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (VAIL,
MONARCH, WOLF CREEK, ETC), SO TRAVELLERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.
MONDAY MORNING SEES THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS, WITH
RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ALOFT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE DIVIDE, OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GENERAL RIDGING WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH THE POLAR JET
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. A FEW WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUIET
FOR THE MOST PART.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START ON THE CHILLIER SIDE, WITH LOWS NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOWS TO DROP BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, SO THOSE
WILL AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN STARTING MONDAY WILL KICK OFF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAYS, HIGHS WILL TICK UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, AND 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TOWNS. SOME PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE AFTER A WET
AND WILD WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT FRI OCT 18 2024
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR KVEL AND KHDN AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. KVEL, KHDN, KRIL, KASE, KEGE,
AND KGJT WILL BE JUST ALONG THE PERIMETER OR MORE OVERCAST SKIES
SO TIMES OF OVERCAST ALONG WITH BROKEN SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ODD SHOWER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR THOSE SAME SITES UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE MUCH
BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERCAST SKIES AND PRECIP ESPECIALLY KDRO AND
KTEX. MVFR UNDER PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THOSE SITES WITH LOW
CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE REACHED FOR KTEX
AND KDRO WHILE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
UTZ028.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page