314
FXUS65 KGJT 202110
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 PM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS EVENING MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAIN
CORRIDORS OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS.
- COLD AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS CONDITIONS DRY AND
CLEAR WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SOME POCKETS OF THE WHITE AND
YAMPA RIVER BASINS MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT RUNNING ONLY SLIGHTLY BEHIND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA CURRENTLY
OVER MEXICAN HAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED
WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK AND UP
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PUSHING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK, THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TAKING THE
DYNAMICS WITH IT. LOOK FOR A FEW INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ON MONARCH, VAIL AND RABBIT EAR PASSES WITH MINOR IMPACTS.
TO THE SOUTH, DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING IN THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH
OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS EAST TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF
PAGOSA SPRINGS FOR 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM TOMORROW. EXPECT
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND BASINS, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES. NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS, THE CLOUDS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET TO KEEP THE MORNING LOWS A BIT WARMER, NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND WILL FEEL WARM IN SPITE OF THE
COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING ACTUAL TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT MONDAY, THE LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. |
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL BE WELCOME FOR NEXT WEEK AFTER
DEALING WITH A CUT OFF LOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AZ
STORM WILL BE RE-INTEGRATED INTO THE FLOW ALOFT AND WELL ON
IT'S WAY TO GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. BEHIND IT BROAD RIDGING WILL
TAKE HOLD AS THE STORM TRACK MIGRATES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES. A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THIS FLOW MID WEEK LOOKS TO
DROP A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE FRONT RANGE WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP IT NORTH OF OUR CWA BORDER. SO IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN GET OUR FALL BACK ON WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING BACK TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS LIKELY TO ALSO EAT INTO
SOME OF THE NEW SNOWPACK WE JUST BUILT UP. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE CALENDAR APPROACHES
NOVEMBER TO SEE WHAT MIGHT PLAY OUT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANCE.
UNTIL THEN DRY AND WARM CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS AS THE AZ STORM SYSTEM TRACK OVERHEAD INTO THE PLAINS.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS MEAN SOME AIRFIELD CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY
CHANGE AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
FOR MOST PART VFR WITH AREAS OF ILS SHOULD HOLD IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAF SITES AS THIS
PRECIPITATION WORKS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AND
TERRAIN OBSCURATION LIKELY HOLDING IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
21/18Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ021>023.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...
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