553
FXUS65 KGJT 211737
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAIN
CORRIDORS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH IMPACTS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PASSES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER
NOON.
- COLD AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS CONDITIONS DRY AND
CLEAR WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, NORTHERN VALLEYS AND HIGHER
CENTRAL VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER ARIZONA THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND FINALLY TRACKED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
YESTERDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE WITH ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE EAST ACROSS
THE PARK RANGE, MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER I-70 FROM RIFLE
EAST TO VAIL PASS. SO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING THE SNOW NOW BUT ACCORDING TO SNOTELS,
AMOUNTS APPEAR IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE AT BEST. ROADS REMAIN
WET FOR THE MOST PART STILL UNTIL YOU GET TO THE TOP OF VAIL
PASS WHERE SOME SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON THE ROAD. THIS LOW HAS
BEEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN
THAT WAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND ENDING ABOUT NOON. OVERALL, THIS STORM
SYSTEM HAS BEEN A MILD ONE WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO -2C AT
BEST AT THE LOWS CORE THIS MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
IMPACTS WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE IF YOU ARE TRAVELING OVER VAIL
PASS THIS MORNING BUT ONLY EXPECTING 3 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH WITH ROADS
TURNING WET BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING.
DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS LOW TRACKING THROUGH, CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE, PERSISTING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SAN
JUANS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS AS HINTED AT YESTERDAY. THESE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 IN SPOTS. SO, CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING THAT WAS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST
GUIDANCE WHICH KEPT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. SO, TONIGHT STANDS A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR THOSE HIGHER
VALLEYS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS, NORTHWEST COLORADO
VALLEYS (MID AND UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN, INCLUDING CRAIG,
MEEKER, HAYDEN AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS), AS WELL AS THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND AREAS EAST. DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE
MENTIONED VALLEY ZONES.
WHILE THE MORNING WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME
LOWER VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS THE LOW EXITS EAST,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GREATLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY PLEASANT DESPITE THIS STORM'S PASSAGE WITH HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY BUT A LITTLE MILDER ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE
TO MORE SUN AND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH NOON. THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AS OUR REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND WAA
TAKING PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL BE WELCOME FOR THIS COMING WEEK
AFTER DEALING WITH A CUT OFF LOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BEHIND IT BROAD RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AS THE STORM TRACK
MIGRATES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. A SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THIS FLOW MID WEEK LOOKS TO DROP A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE FRONT RANGE WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP IT
NORTH OF OUR CWA BORDER. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN GET OUR FALL
BACK ON WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS
LIKELY TO ALSO EAT INTO SOME OF THE NEW SNOWPACK WE JUST BUILT
UP. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
CALENDAR APPROACHES NOVEMBER TO SEE WHAT MIGHT PLAY OUT WITH
THIS PATTERN CHANGE. UNTIL THEN DRY AND WARM CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE DIVIDE AS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH OF I-70. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP A FEW TERMINALS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, BEFORE CEILINGS CLIMB ABOVE
BREAKPOINTS. IN ADDITION, KDRO HAD SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING, AND WHILE CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING, THEY WILL FLIRT
WITH BREAKPOINTS AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR.
ONCE SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ002-008-021>023.
FREEZE WATCH FROM 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ005.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...15/MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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