000
FXUS65 KGJT 221733
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1133 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SELECT VALLEYS AROUND THE CWA, INCLUDING CRAIG, GLENWOOD
SPRINGS, AND DURANGO.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB UPWARD TODAY AND TOMORROW AND REMAIN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- FORECASTER EYES REMAIN TRAINED ON THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS WEEK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES TODAY WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD AROUND THE REGION. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE GOT THE AUTUMN MOOD GOING, BUT A STUBBORNLY
WARM AIR MASS STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE THANKS TO A LACK
OF COLD AIR INTRUSION AND THE ZONAL POLAR JET HANGING TO OUR NORTH
KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON ARCTIC AIR. THUS, HIGHS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS THEY HAVE FOR WEEKS NOW.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE WITH A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIMETER
OF THE POLAR JET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40'S FOR OUR LOW
ELEVATION VALLEYS AND AROUND FREEZING AND COLDER IN THE ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR LOW VALLEYS
WITH UNEVAPORATED SURFACE MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE UPWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES AS WE PICK UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BOTH DAYS. A PACNW TROUGH COMING ASHORE ON WEDNESDAY WILL AMPLIFY
THE RIDGING SLIGHTLY AND TURN FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. CLOUD FREE
SKIES AND MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE FOR A RATHER MILD DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
HE QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CLIPS OUR NORTHERN COLORADO ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN WYOMING. WHILE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA
ASIDE FROM MAYBE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE NORTH COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
THOUGH REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN TERMS OF HIGHS AS THIS COOL
FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW. SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE AT
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, SO IF THIS
MORNING'S LOWS DON'T HIT...THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING'S LOWS JUST
MIGHT. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPRAWL OUT ACROSS THE WEST
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT OVERALL, WAA SHOULD TAKE PLACE
BRINGING HIGHS UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVE OR TAKE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING BEYOND MONDAY, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY TAKE A TURN TOWARDS COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS A DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND. DESPITE
MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS, THE MODELS
ALL SEEM TO AGREE ON THE UNSETTLED CHANGE TOWARDS THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS, CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN VALLEYS OVER KEGE,
KHDN, AND KGUC TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS AT
KEGE, THEREFORE HAVING INCLUDED MINOR REDUCTION IN VISBILITY IN THE
TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KHDN AND KGUC HAS RESULTED IN NO VISIBLITY
REDUCTIONS INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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