402
FXUS65 KGJT 230454
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 PM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
IT'S A PLEASANT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN SLOPE
ALTHOUGH IT WAS A FOGGY START FOR SOME. THE JET STREAM IS
SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND, ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE, IS THE REASON FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS ALLOWED A FEW CU TO POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AND
THAT'S ABOUT IT. FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. UNTIL THEN, WARM TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.
SOME QUESTION ABOUT FOG TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS. FORECAST LOWS
ARE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY APPEARANCE OF FOG AT BAY. HAVING SAID THAT, DID INCLUDE
SOME SMALL AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN THE UINTA
BASIN, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, EAGLE/GYPSUM AREAS AND AROUND PAGOSA
SPRINGS JUST IN CASE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
THURSDAY MORNING SEES OUR NORTHERN BORDER WITH WYOMING GETTING
CLIPPED BY A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE. THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WYOMING, SO FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE PARK RANGE, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, RESULTING IN THURSDAY'S HIGHS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS, OR NEAR
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 WILL SEE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, REMAINING
SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
UNDER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS AND WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES, THE NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
FREEZE.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF BY FRIDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY
GIVING WAY TO HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO RETURN, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. ON SUNDAY, A LARGE PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NUDGING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EAST AND GRADUALLY TURNING FLOW
ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. LOOK FOR INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, AS WELL AS A HAVING A JET NOSING IN ALOFT. BY
MONDAY, THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND, ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE
AT WHAT SPEED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY FAVORING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS AN OUTLIER THAT MOVES THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
MONDAY. THIS DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT ON WHEN THE UNSETTLED
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OFFICIALLY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS ALSO FAVORING THE SLOWER
PATTERN, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. REGARDLESS, THERE IS STILL REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WE'LL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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