527
FXUS65 KGJT 231125
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 AM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW UNDER A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK WHILE
THE POLAR JET REMAINS AT BAY TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES, SETTLING
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
THE POLAR JET ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS WYOMING. THIS COULD
BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN
PARK RANGE WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH, RESULTING IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-70, WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNPHASED BY
THIS WITH VERY SIMILAR MILD TEMPERATURES...MAYBE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THIS WAVE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RESULT AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FOLLOW A RATHER PREDICTABLE ARC
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND SKIES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE FLATTENED POLAR JET TO OUR
NORTH WILL HOST A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT LITTLE ELSE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE REGION BY PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
COALESCING AROUND A PACNW SYSTEM DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN LATER SUNDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES AND PHASING ARE STILL
COMING TOGETHER AT THE MOMENT. A RESPECTABLE JET STREAK ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND WILL RATCHET UP WINDS FOR MONDAY AROUND THE REGION,
GIVEN THE PRESENT TIMING. IN A CLASSIC FALL PATTERN, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BENEATH A
STIFF JET STREAK WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS TO THE CWA,
FOLLOWED BY A WAVE OF COLD AIR POOLED BEHIND THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS ARE STILL BROAD FOR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
MORE THAN ONE MEMBER HAS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVING TO THE
GRAND VALLEY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL SEE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY DELIVER SOME MORE WINTER CONDITIONS TO THE
MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS ANOTHER BIG COOL DOWN TO PUSH US TOWARDS
NOVEMBER. FALL HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS YEAR, BUT THIS
STORM FEELS LIKE A STEP IN THAT DIRECTION. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS MAY PASS FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS DUE TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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