900
FXUS65 KGJT 232006
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
206 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
POTENTIALLY BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
WITH THE POLAR JET REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
IN PLACE OVERHEAD, SUNNY SKIES ARE IN CONTROL. IN FACT, THERE'S NOT
A CLOUD TO BE SEEN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR THE DESERT VALLEYS, AND 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOWNS. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL, WITH LOWS CONTINUING 5-
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. NORTH OF I-70, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL JUST CLIP
AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH WYOMING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PARK RANGE, WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION. OF MORE INTEREST IS THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS
WAVE WILL NUDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THANKS TO THIS
FRONT, HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY. AS THIS COOLER AIRMASS HANGS AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP PROMOTE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY.
THIS LOCATION WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL BUMP UP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...A BIT MORE FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THOUGH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SUPPORTING THE TROUGH AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS STARTING SATURDAY EVENING, WELL
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY THOUGH SKIES
WILL BECOME MORE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH WA STATE AND OREGON. AS WE TEND TO SEE IN THESE FALL STORMS,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH EXPECTED. SOME PRECIP WILL START FALLING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS FAVORED.
COVERAGE INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND AS THE FRONT AND BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, THIS IS WHEN WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WHICH WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXITING JET AND THUS,
A BIT MORE AVAILABLE LIFT. WE'RE NOT DONE YET THOUGH AS ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE DOESN'T HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE
PREVIOUS STORM BUT WE'LL STILL SEE SOME PRECIP.
AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED SNOW LEVELS WILL SET UP AROUND 9K
FEET, GIVE OR TAKE, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FAR OUT, WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS PAN OUT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL, DROP TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
MONDAY, AND THEN BELOW TUESDAY ONWARDS. LOWS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH
FREEZING VALUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY COLDER STILL THURSDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED FOR A BIT. THE QUESTION IS IF
IT'LL STICK AROUND THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY CREEP OVER KVEL AND KHDN TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002-005.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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