708
FXUS65 KGJT 232335
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
POTENTIALLY BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
WITH THE POLAR JET REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD, SUNNY SKIES ARE IN CONTROL. IN
FACT, THERE'S NOT A CLOUD TO BE SEEN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE DESERT VALLEYS,
AND 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS. A FEW PASSING CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL, WITH LOWS CONTINUING 5- 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. NORTH
OF I-70, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL JUST CLIP AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH WYOMING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PARK RANGE,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OF MORE INTEREST IS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT THIS WAVE WILL NUDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THANKS TO THIS FRONT, HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. AS THIS COOLER AIRMASS HANGS
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL HELP PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
FRIDAY. THIS LOCATION WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BUMP UP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...A BIT MORE FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. MORE SUN THAN
CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SUPPORTING THE TROUGH AND WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS STARTING SATURDAY EVENING, WELL AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MORE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH WA STATE AND OREGON. AS WE TEND TO SEE IN THESE
FALL STORMS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE
MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. SOME PRECIP WILL
START FALLING OVERSPREADING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE SAN
JUANS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS FAVORED. COVERAGE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AND AS THE FRONT AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, THIS IS WHEN WE CAN EXPECT TO
SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXITING JET
AND THUS, A BIT MORE AVAILABLE LIFT. WE'RE NOT DONE YET THOUGH
AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE DOESN'T HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE PREVIOUS STORM BUT WE'LL STILL SEE
SOME PRECIP.
AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED SNOW LEVELS WILL SET UP
AROUND 9K FEET, GIVE OR TAKE, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS
FAR OUT, WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL, DROP TO SEASONAL VALUES
BY MONDAY, AND THEN BELOW TUESDAY ONWARDS. LOWS WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING VALUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
COLDER STILL THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED FOR
A BIT. THE QUESTION IS IF IT'LL STICK AROUND THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY, THEN
EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL GET WINDS GOING A BIT EARLIER THAN USUAL THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING WITH
MODERATELY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. MEANWHILE, STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT KHDN,
KASE AND KGUC FROM AROUND 02Z TO 16Z/THURS. SHOWERS ARE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO CEILINGS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS ANTICIPATED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002-005.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL
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