063
FXUS65 KGJT 240856
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
256 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO
TODAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN MANY AREAS OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
AN OPEN WAVE IS MOVING INTO W.WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT HAND ANALYZED ACROSS THE UTAH PANHANDLE.
THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING LAYING THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE IT
WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING A QUICK SHOWER TO OUR FAR
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT A PROLONGED OR DEEP
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER IS NOT INDICATED BY HREF SOUNDINGS.
THE MORE NOTICEABLE THING WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS LOOK TO BE SOME 8 TO 16
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT
AS WINDS DIE OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND BROAD RIDGING WILL SETTLE INTO PLACE TO END OUT
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
KEEPING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
BUMP UP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...A BIT MORE FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THOUGH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO SUNDAY,
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACNW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE
SUPPORTING THE TROUGH AND WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
STARTING SATURDAY EVENING, WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY THOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME MORE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH WA STATE AND OREGON. AS WE TEND TO SEE IN THESE
FALL STORMS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE
MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. SOME PRECIP WILL
START FALLING OVERSPREADING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE SAN
JUANS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS FAVORED. COVERAGE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AND AS THE FRONT AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, THIS IS WHEN WE CAN EXPECT TO
SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXITING JET
AND THUS, A BIT MORE AVAILABLE LIFT. WE'RE NOT DONE YET THOUGH
AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE DOESN'T HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE PREVIOUS STORM BUT WE'LL STILL SEE
SOME PRECIP.
AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED SNOW LEVELS WILL SET UP
AROUND 9K FEET, GIVE OR TAKE, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS
FAR OUT, WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL, DROP TO SEASONAL VALUES
BY MONDAY, AND THEN BELOW TUESDAY ONWARDS. LOWS WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING VALUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
COLDER STILL THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED FOR
A BIT. THE QUESTION IS IF IT'LL STICK AROUND THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2024
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY, EXITING TO
THE EAST BY 18Z. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GET WINDS GOING A BIT EARLIER THAN USUAL THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING WITH MODERATELY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN LLWS AT KHDN, KASE AND KGUC FROM AROUND 02Z TO
16Z/THURS. SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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