062
FXUS65 KGJT 242315
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
515 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS TODAY. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING AS SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS
OVERNIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY
BRINGING SOME CLOUDINESS TO THAT AREA AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.THE FORECAST HIGH FOR CRAIG, CO TODAY IS
56F, A FAR CRY FROM THE 71F THEY REACHED YESTERDAY. SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE TEMPERATURE AT 1:30PM IS 54F. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. ALONG
THE DIVIDE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SOME BUT FOR THE MOST OF
THE CWA, HIGHS REMAIN WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE.
CLOUDS UP NORTH ARE ALREADY DECREASING AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS SO THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
FOUND IN AND AROUND THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA AS THEY DROP TO
THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE AXIS BUILD IN BRINGING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. MIGHT HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME THIN, HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THAT'LL
BE ABOUT IT. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. THEY'LL WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES TO
THE HIGHS THEY'LL SEE TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR.
CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON, HOWEVER, AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
IT TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
TIGHTENS UP, LEADING TO A BIT OF A BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MONDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE WINDIER DAY, AS
THAT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT GAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL ASSISTANCE
IN THE FORM OF OF A 90-100 KNOT 250 MB JET. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE JET WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF DYNAMIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH, NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. THANKS TO THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN ON
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, WITH THE SAN JUANS
FAVORED. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, KEEPING SNOW LEVELS HIGH AND RELEGATING SNOW
SHOWERS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11K FEET. THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BETWEEN THE FORCING FROM THE
COLD FRONT AND THE MAXED OUT DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING IS LOOKING LIKE THE
BEST PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT THE
EASTERN UINTAS AND THE SAN JUANS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE MOST FAVORED
RANGES TO SEE THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AS SUPPORT MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS,
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TRANSIENT
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE ALL HINTING AT ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
WAITING IN THE WINGS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. SO IT SEEMS COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. TEMPERATURES START OUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY, AND THEN RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ001-002-005.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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