798
FXUS65 KGJT 152209
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
309 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND WINDY PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TODAY PUSH TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, WITH WINDS GUSTING 30-45 MPH
AROUND THE REGION.
- WEAK SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DELIVER SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY TO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY
MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DELIVER MORE
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, BUT STILL GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS, AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
AFTERNOON SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN A
FORM SIMILAR TO A LARGE DRY SLOT, WITH AN UPSTREAM CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. AREA RADARS SHOW SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA INCLUDING THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN AND UINTA MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IMPLY THAT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT REACHING THE GROUND OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
(PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES IN THE UINTAS). ELSEWHERE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SAN JUANS,
WHERE VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE SEEN GUSTS INTO THE 50S
(WITH 60S+ OVER EXPOSED RIDGES IN THE SAN JUANS). MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES IN WELL-MIXED VALLEYS HAVE RISEN 5-10 DEGREES FROM
24 HOURS AGO.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH 5PM. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAPIDLY DECREASING
GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 5PM, WITH ONLY 30% OR SO OF MEMBERS
CONTINUING TO SHOW SUCH GUSTS THEREAFTER, AND LIMITED TO THE
UNIMPACTFUL HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AT THAT. THUS, AS
OF THIS WRITING IT APPEARS THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIMING WILL
WORK OUT AS PLANNED.
THE STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND
TODAY BEFORE THE SPLITTING INTO TWO MAIN PIECES. THE NORTHERN
SPLIT HEADS UP INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SPLIT CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
REGION. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN AN AREA OF WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT
WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSFER BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY UNDER
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST MOST OF THE LOWER
LAYERS REMAINING DRY WITH JUST THE HIGHER PEAKS CATCHING SOME OF
THE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NORTH OF I-70. SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW HIGH PEAKS ABOVE TIMBERLINE MAY
END UP WITH A FEW INCHES. NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR THE TRAVEL
CORRIDORS LOOKING AT THINGS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TAKE AT
LEAST A 10 TO 15 DEGREE TUMBLE TOMORROW AND SHOULD END UP BACK
BELOW NORMAL AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
QUIET WEATHER STARTS OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE CLOSED LOW
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP STARTING LATE MONDAY EVENING
THOUGH THE NBM MIGHT BE STARTING THINGS A LITTLE BIT EARLY AS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTRODUCE PRECIP TO THE CWA HEADING MORE
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, MODEL AGREEMENT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS, BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ESPECIALLY, WAS LACKING BUT THEY
ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT. ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER GUIDANCE
ARE ALSO SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH SAID TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING
THROUGH INCREASING COVERAGE THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE NORTHERN HALF (AND A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SAN JUANS)
WILL SEE SOME PRECIP. FOR YOU SNOW LOVERS...BAD NEWS, AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED IN THIS SCENARIO AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LOW QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS OF NOW, 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLAT TOPS AND PARK RANGE WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN UINTAS (1 TO 2
INCHES). ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO AND THEN EXCEEDING
THOSE SAME SEASONAL VALUES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE AIRSPACE,
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LOOKING TO BE CALM REGION-WIDE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ020-021.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ022-028.
SHORT TERM...DVC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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