585
FXUS65 KGJT 161650
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND LIMITED IMPACTS.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DELIVER MORE
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, BUT STILL GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS, AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY PLACING THE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WYOMING, UTAH,
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL FRONT MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH H700 TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 5C. THE MAIN THRUST
OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE H700 TEMPS
FALLING ANOTHER 3-5C. THE COLD AIR AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET ALOFT HAVE SPAWNED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LOWER CU TIED TO THE TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE
CLOUD COVER IS LIGHT INDICATIVE OF THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT IS FILLING IN THE SALT LAKE
BASIN AND WEST, BUT LITTLE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE WASATCH RANGE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING,
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE PARK RANGE LOOKS TO BE THE BIG WINNER FROM THIS
SYSTEM WITH UP TO FOUR INCHES NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTH WILL ONLY SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE TWO INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE MOST
STRIKING IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
DROP IN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY FROM THE
FRIDAY HIGHS AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS THE TIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT
HAVE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE TROUGH/COL AREA TO MOVE
IN OVERHEAD.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, WITH THE RESULTING LOW CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SOUTH TO THE US-MEXICO BORDER BEFORE TURNING EAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE BORDER SUNDAY. WITH THE LOW TRACKING SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH AND TAKING ALL THE WEATHER WITH IT, SUNDAY WILL BE A
QUIET, BUT COOL WEATHER DAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO WITH LIGHT BREEZES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
A STRONG UPSTREAM KICKER WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY
NIGHT PUSHING A TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER OUR CWA AND HELPING TO EJECT
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LOW INTO THE PLAINS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR BUT AGAIN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN
MOISTURE CONTENT AS THE UPSTREAM TERRAIN ABSORBS THE INLAND
PENETRATING AR. THE MODEL TREND OF KEEPING THIS TROUGH OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE REMAINS INTACT THIS MORNING AND IT SHOULD BE SLIDING
INTO THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS TO LEAVE MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN IT'S WAKE
ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BECOMING THE FAVORITE A WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED TO END OUT THE WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE SETS
UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT WELL
TO THE NORTH WHERE A ROBUST AR SHOULD BRING SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. DOWN HERE UNDER
THE DRY CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO
END OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND CONDITIONS
REMAINING ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOSTLY
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. KTEX, KEEO AND KSBS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE BRIEF PERIODS WITH IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...DB
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