486
FXUS65 KGJT 162337
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DELIVER MORE MEASURABLE
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, BUT STILL GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING A DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING COLDER AIR AND A BIT OF
ENHANCED LIFT. THIS HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
FORM OVER THE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS LACKING
SOMEWHAT, UNDER THIS COLD REGIME IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO FORM
SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70,
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS VIRGA, SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT TO THE GROUND IN SPOTS,
BRINGING LIGHT, IF ANY, ACCUMULATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY HAVE
CLIMBED TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES, WHILE SPOTS SEEING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT INTO A NORTHERN WAVE A SOUTHERN
CUTOFF LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BETWEEN, RIGHT OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, PROMOTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUGH OF I-70 WILL SEE LOWS DROP NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET AND COOL, UNDER THIS BAND OF HIGHER PRESSURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND SOUTHERN CUTOFF, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO MAKE UP FOR
IT. THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON WEATHER IN THE WESTERN SLOPE,
SAVE FOR MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE LOWS 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE SYNOPTIC SIDE OF THINGS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONG TERM FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A VERY BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE REGION AND AS SOON AS MIDMORNING MONDAY,
SOME LIGHT QPF IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS, OVERSPREADING TO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY NOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
WEAK AS WE'LL BE BETWEEN AN EXITING JET STREAK TO THE NORTH AND THE
NEXT ONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT WE WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE
DIVERGENT SECTION ALOFT FROM BOTH STREAKS ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE.
QG FORCING SHOWS THIS AS WELL WITH WEAK LIFT DEPICTED BY VARIOUS
MODELS. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL COME FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THANKS TO WEST THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
INTERESTINGLY, GENERALLY TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP MENTIONED ABOVE OCCURRING
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY SHOT OF ENERGY THEN MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS
VERY LOW WITH THIS SECOND SHOT AND WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF OR SNOWFALL. SPEAKING OF, AMOUNTS DID COME UP A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY BUT THE GOING FORECAST OF A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLAT TOPS CONTINUE TO
BE THE FAVORED AREAS...MAYBE AN INCH FOR THE UINTAS AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR THE SAN JUANS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND IF THESE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN THE SAME OR
INCREASE.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION, HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEK, IF NOT BEYOND. WE'LL RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING CONDITIONS. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WARMUP STARTS THURSDAY ONWARDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
MID-LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND IF A SHOWER SHOULD MOVE OVER A TAF SITE, VERY BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z GIVING WAY TO A FEW CLOUDS, IF NOT
CLEAR SKIES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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