824
FXUS65 KGJT 181035
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
335 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
- 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE FLAT TOPS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AROUND 7-15 DEGREES TUESDAY BUT
START WARMING UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LOOKS TO MOVE IN
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS STORM MAY HAVE
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TRACKING BETTER ON TIMING, UNLIKE THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL RUNNING THREE TO SIX HOURS FAST ON EJECTING
THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER EL PASO TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. CONVERSELY, THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
THREE HOURS BEHIND THE ENSEMBLES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ON THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION ROLLING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HENCE, LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM. THERE'S NOT A LOT
OF QG DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF,
BUT THERE IS SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, SOME VERY COLD MID-
LEVEL AIR FOR SOME STEEP LAPS RATES TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS TO KICK THINGS OFF. WHAT'S
MISSING IS A DEEP POOL OF MOISTURE TO MAKE THIS A KILLER WINTER
STORM. HENCE, WE'LL ONLY SEE TWO TO FOUR INCHES SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS,
JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ICY MOUNTAIN ROADS, BUT WE WILL SEE
COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING SEVEN TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER WITH THE MORE
EXTREME EXCURSIONS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START POPPING UP LATE THIS MORNING,
INCREASING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AS SOME
COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JETSTREAK MOVES OVERHEAD. THE UPPER-LEVEL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT TO SPREAD THE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND EVEN A FEW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND IN THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW LIMITING
VISIBILITY AND IMPACTING ROAD CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT COULD IMPACT THE TUESDAY UP VALLEY MORNING COMMUTE
GENERALLY FROM DE BEQUE EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE DIVIDE
BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WELL INTO THE PLAINS AND A BROAD RIDGE REPLACES IT OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS PLACE OVER THE REGION TO END OUT THE WEEK
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND USHER IN A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES TO START WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT LOOK TO
HIT OR EXCEED NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND. OUT WEST THERE WILL BE A LARGE CYCLONE ANCHORED OFF THE
PACNW COAST FEEDING A MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT AR INTO THE
WESTERN COASTAL STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPSTREAM TERRAIN WILL SOAK
UP A GOOD BIT OF THIS AR BUT THE PLUME WILL EVENTUALLY BE
FORCED SOUTH OF THE SIERRAS AND ALLOW IT TO REACH WELL INLAND
TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR OUR CWA TO PICK UP SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
FOR NOW ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN
AVERAGE IN THIS SCENARIO. THE DETAILS TO WORK OUT HOWEVER WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY IN THE STORM CYCLE
AS THE COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE HELD UP NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TAF SITES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. IF SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS, ILS
BREAKPOINTS AT ASE, EGE, AND RIL MAY BE REACHED. LOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THIS IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE FOR
AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS INCREASES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
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