106
FXUS65 KGJT 182319
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A GENERAL 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS,
FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTIANS.
- MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING KICKING IN
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FIRST ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO DAYS PREVIOUS, TOPPING
OUT A NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST WAVE, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT, STRONGER WAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP THIS EVENING,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, IT
WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH MINIMAL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AND A DEFINITE LACK OF MOISTURE, SNOW TOTALS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SPINE OF THE PARK RANGE AND THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE ELKS AND WEST ELKS WILL SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS,
TOPPING OUT AROUND 6 INCHES. THE REST OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 8500 FEET, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS, WILL SEE
GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE AROUND THE US 50
CORRIDOR AT DAYBREAK, AND WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON. LIGHT
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW TOPPING OUT AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
COULD RUN 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT FOR EASTERN UTAH AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COMPETE WITH THE MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. TOMORROW NIGHT, HOWEVER, LOWS WILL BE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS, FAVORED COLD
POOL SPOTS MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER THANKS TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
ON WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO LATE WEEK CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING. BY SATURDAY THE HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THAT LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RESULT
IN SOME OF THAT EJECTING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING A MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DO THE SAME AND HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES
OF REACHING HERE ONCE IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE SIERRAS. THAT
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE PERHAPS ON MONDAY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING EVOLVES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
SHOWERS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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