294
FXUS65 KGJT 191125
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY BEHIND A
FRONT AS COLD...UNSTABLE AIR HITS THE TERRAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES OF 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND KICKING IN BY TOMORROW.
HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA AND AT 09Z WAS DROPPING THROUGH THE GUNNY BASIN...UPPER UNCO
RIVER VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE ABAJOS IN SE UTAH. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RELEASED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CONTINUES TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS JET FORCING ALOFT AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES...AND OF COURSE OROGRAPHICS. THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOK TO HAVE PICKED UP SOME DECENT SNOW
ALREADY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE FROM THIS INITIAL PUSH. THIS
SNOW LOOKS MORE WINTERY-LIKE WITH SLR LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE
TEENS WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT NOW MOVING IN. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL BE NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING
WHICH WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS UP THROUGH THE ELK
RANGES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COLD...UNSTABLE
OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE MOST FAVORABLE MODE WITH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER MOSITURE STAYING SATURATED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGH SLR SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME INFLATED
AMOUNTS IF A BAND BECOME MORE STATIONARY...SUCH AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES DOWNSTREAM FROM PROMINENT TERRAIN
FEATURES. OTHERWISE AMOUNTS LOOK LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO. THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL DROP HIGHS AT LEAST
10 TO 15 DEGREES TODAY...WHICH WILL ALSO BE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE THE DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIPE FOR SNOW. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY TAKE HOLD PAST SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL END ANY REMAINING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS AND HELP EASE THE COLD JUST A BIT...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO LATE WEEK CAUSING THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING. BY
SATURDAY THE HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH
THAT LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RESULT IN SOME OF THAT
EJECTING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD BE
THE BEGINNING A MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL DO THE SAME AND HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF REACHING HERE
ONCE IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE SIERRAS. THAT LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE
PERHAPS ON MONDAY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS TO SEE
HOW EVERYTHING EVOLVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES A FEW VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KASE...KEGE...KTEX BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO ILS AND
EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD COVER
THE REMAINING TAF FORECASTS WITH CLEARING COMING BY EVENING AS A
COLD NIGHT SETS IN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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