586
FXUS65 KGJT 192344
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
444 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH MINOR
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTS TOMORROW. HIGHS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA LEAVING STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE. THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE TERRAIN DRIVEN
DOWNSTREAM OF PROMINENT FEATURES, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR MORE
PERSISTENT BANDS OF SNOW. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE MORE CELLULAR AND
THEREFORE MORE SHORT LIVED, BUT WITH BURSTS OF SNOW. THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS IS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY A
DUSTING UP TO 4 INCHES ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BANDS MAY SET UP. WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND BY MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT SO GUSTS COULD REACH 30-
40 MPH IN SPOTS. THIS WIND COUPLED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY. WINDS ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY AREAS
WITH NEW SNOWFALL. TOMORROW MARKS THE BEGINNING OF PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER US. SO WARM ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS LOOKING TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING IN THE PACNW. BY FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH LOWS
SHOULD BE ON PAR WITH AVERAGES. WHILE A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW, IMPACTS TO OUR CWA ARE LIKELY TO
DELAY UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WHEN THE TROUGH MIGRATES
SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVES
SOUTH OF THE SIERRAS, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY. WHILE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE ROCKIES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, THE
GREATEST IMPACTS LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS STILL VARY SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE'S ARRIVAL, THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
REGARDLESS, ONCE RAIN AND SNOW DO BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE REGION,
WE ANTICIPATE IT TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. SO BE PREPARED
FOR A WET AND CHILLY WEEK FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TAF SITES AS REMNANT STRATUS
FRACTUS DISSIPATES EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
TOWARD MORNING AND WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTH DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, GUSTY WESTERLIES WILL EASE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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