797
FXUS65 KGJT 200948
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
248 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS SATURDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PROPAGATES INTO OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH THEY SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL. ENJOY IT AS
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. JUST OFF THE PACNW A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE SPINNING AS CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS AR WILL START MOVING INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
A STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PUSH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG JET
STREAK AND WITH PLENTY OF SUPPORT ALOFT, LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUS, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY. CLUSTER GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN START
DISAGREEING WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE
PACNW. THE DIFFERENCES ARE CONSIDERABLE AT THE MOMENT SO TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL WIN OUT. HAVING SAID THAT,
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTERS LOOK TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY...IT'S AFTER THAT WHEN THINGS GET A BIT MURKY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE TOP OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOME TERRAIN
INFLUENCE AT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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