244
FXUS65 KGJT 141738
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS ADDITIONAL PASSING WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW
CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH. THE GUNNISON BASIN AND ADJACENT
DRAINAGES WILL BE ESPECIALLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.
- OTHERWISE, EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO END OUT THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLDEST
AIR SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT TEMPERATURES ON THIS
SIDE WILL END UP WELL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY MOUNTAIN AND
HIGH VALLEY/BASIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS THE GIFT THAT KEEP ON GIVING WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER YAMPA RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT LIKELY AIDED BY ASCENT OVER THE
COLD DOME IN PLACE. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM
THE VALLEY UP TO THE DIVIDE. NORTH FACING SLOPES FROM THE GRAND
MEAS TO THE ELKS DOWN TO THE SAN JUANS HAVE ALSO SEEM SOME
PASSING SHOWERS WITH A HALF OF AN INCH UP TO TWO INCHES
ACCUMULATION SHOWING UP ON SNOW STAKES. TWO MORE PASSING WAVES
DROP THROUGH THE FLOW AND ARE LIKELY TO TICKLE THE DENDRITIC
LAYER AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HILLS AND LESS DOWN LOW...BUT AGAIN THIS COULD BE UNDERESTIMATED
WITH THE HIGH SLR IN PLACE AND AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WANTS TO KEEP
SNOWING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL
AGAIN TODAY WITH THIS NO MORE APPARENT THAN THE GUNNISON BASIN
WHO WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND INLAND. SO AFTER LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY WE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW FINALLY SHUT
OFF BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN MANY AREA. WELL EXCEPT
FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING INVERSION SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
FOR THE MOST PAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAIN DRY AS THE CLOSED
LOW GETS SHEARED OUT AND USHERED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY WELL
SOUTH OF US. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
COMES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ARRIVES HERE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH TRACKS OVERHEAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. THAT
SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY, BUT SHOWERS
LOOK TO LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH OUT THE DAY. MOST
RANGES WILL SEE SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT, BUT THE PARK RANGE
LOOKS TO BE FAVORED ONCE AGAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH -20C, WHICH WOULD BE ONE OF
THE COLDEST AIR MASSES OF THE SEASON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER
STEEP SO DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE HELP FROM A WEAK WAVE
ON MONDAY AS WELL. FRESH SNOW COVERED VALLEYS COULD GET RATHER
COLD IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH STRATUS AND OR
FOG IS COMMON IN THESE POST FRONTAL REGIMES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL, BUT THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR NEAR RECORD COLD. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT STAYS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
POLAR VORTEX TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LINGERS ACROSS THE ELKHEADS,
PARK AND GORE RANGES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CEILINGS
PROBABLE AT HDN, EGE, AND ASE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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