174
FXUS65 KGJT 142158
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
258 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW
CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE GUNNISON BASIN AND
ADJACENT DRAINAGES WILL BE ESPECIALLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.
- OTHERWISE, EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO END OUT THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLDEST
AIR SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT TEMPERATURES ON THIS
SIDE WILL END UP WELL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY MOUNTAIN AND
HIGH VALLEY/BASIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD, NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER YAMPA
VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ONE MORE WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH AN
ADDITIONAL T-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE LEANED ON THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE QPF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW RATIOS.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME TOMORROW AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GUNNISON VALLEY WHERE STRONG
INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING OFF THE SOCAL COAST, WILL USHER BACK INLAND
ON THURSDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
RECENT RUNS HAVE A BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE LOW'S TRAJECTORY,
SWOOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SKIRTING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA'S BOARDER. DRY AIR ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
WILL BE NUDGED INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AHEAD OF THE LOW'S
CENTER, WHICH ALLOWS FOR DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LOW WILL ALREADY BE
SHEARED OUT AND USHERED EASTWARD THANKS TO THE NEXT PACNW TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE SAGS BACK SOUTH
ON FRIDAY SO, WHILE WE'LL LIKELY STAY DRY, CLOUDS WILL USHER BACK IN
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ELKHEAD,
PARK AND GORE RANGES BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE
DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. A BULK OF THE WAVE'S MOISTURE WILL THEN POOL
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE, REDUCING SNOW TOTALS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
OUR SIDE OF THE DIVIDE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS,
UNCOMPAHGRE, LA SALS AND ABAJOS FALL ON THE DRY SIDE OF THIS
PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL JET. PICTURE A ROUGH DIAGONAL LINE SLICING OUR
CWA IN TWO, SANDWICH STYLE...SNOW FAVORED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NADA
(OR NOT A LOT..) TO THE SOUTHWEST. EVERY RANGE, HOWEVER, WILL GET A
TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S
WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH EXPOSED PEAKS UP TO 40
MPH. SUNDAY'S WIND TICK BACK A NOTCH, WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSER TO 30
MPH. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS FOR DESERT VALLEYS AND AS LOW AS THE -20'S FOR HIGH VALLEY
FLOORS AND MOUNTAIN TOWNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
BUT, THIS IS ONLY ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES TRICKLING DOWN THE
BROADENING TROUGH'S LEADING EDGE. ROUND TWO IS ON TRACK FOR A DEEPER
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. AS A RESULT, THIS
PROVIDES A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR DRYING SW RANGES. OF COURSE, MINOR DETAILS BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE, SO DON'T GET TOO HUNG UP ON SNOW
PROBS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ELEMENTS WHICH ARE MUCH MORE DECIPHERABLE
ARE THE COLD AIR MASS SAGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND KEEP
DROPPING BEHIND WAVE TWO. FOR NOW, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE
PROGGED TO BE THE COLDEST OUT OF OUR 7 DAY FORECAST, WITH OUR HIGH
VALLEY COLD POOLS (AKA GUNNISON, UPPER YAMPA...) DROPPING DOWN TO -
25 TO -35 DEGREES! THOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL SCOUR THROUGH OUR PESKY
INVERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WE EXPECT COLD AIR SETTLING BACK IN
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO TO REFORM SAID INVERSIONS AND TRAP
SEVERAL REGIONS UNDER THIS BONE CHILLING REGIME. PLEASE STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THIS WEEKEND'S AND EARLY NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FLIRTING WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS, AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXTREME COLD WARNING THRESHOLDS. WE
MAY BE TALKING DAYS 6 OR 7 HERE, BUT NBM'S MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
DIPS DOWN TO AS LOW AS -30 FOR THE UPPER YAMPA RIVER VALLEY AND -37
FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LINGERS ACROSS THE ELKHEADS,
PARK AND GORE RANGES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CEILINGS
PROBABLE AT HDN, EGE, AND ASE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page