694
FXUS65 KGJT 151134
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GUNNISON BASIN
WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST.
- CHANGES ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DIVES THROUGH
AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD SNOW AND COLD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.
- A STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO END OUT THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLDEST
AIR SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT TEMPERATURES ON THIS
SIDE WILL END UP WELL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY MOUNTAIN AND
HIGH VALLEY/BASIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
THE DEEP AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS A REX HIGH EXPANDS OUT
OF THE E.PAC INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR ALOFT AND SOME RELIEF TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA. THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO STABILIZE THE FLOW AND END ANY
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN REMAINS A BIG
CHALLENGE. WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR -20F AGAIN AND WITH THE
BUILDING INVERSION ALOFT...DON'T SEE A PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE
COLD AIR. A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WARM AIR WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH THAT MINIMAL MIXING WILL GET IT DOWN AND HELP WARM THINGS
UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST YET AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN TODAY AND LOW TEENS
TOMORROW. UNFORTUNATELY HOW THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR HAS PLAYED
OUT IS THIS COULD BE TOO WARM OR THURSDAY...OR NOT WARM ENOUGH
AS 50TH PERCENTILES ARE CLOSER TO 20. OTHERWISE MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD PUSH CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. MID
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BENEFIT THE MOST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD END UP 15 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ENJOY THE WARMER TREND WHILE IT LASTS...WHICH
WON'T BE LONG. MORE DETAILS BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
BY THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE IT'S GRIP AS
A STRONG HIGH LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO INTRUDE ON THE PACNW AND
FORCING THE RIDGE TO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE SAGS BACK SOUTH ON
FRIDAY SO, WHILE WE'LL LIKELY STAY DRY, CLOUDS WILL USHER BACK
IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
ELKHEAD, PARK AND GORE RANGES BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH
ALONG THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. A BULK OF THE WAVE'S MOISTURE WILL
THEN POOL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE, REDUCING SNOW TOTALS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON OUR SIDE OF THE DIVIDE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS, UNCOMPAHGRE, LA SALS AND ABAJOS FALL ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THIS PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL JET. PICTURE A ROUGH
DIAGONAL LINE SLICING OUR CWA IN TWO, SANDWICH STYLE...SNOW
FAVORED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NADA (OR NOT A LOT..) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. EVERY RANGE, HOWEVER, WILL GET A TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S WIND GUSTS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH EXPOSED PEAKS UP TO 40 MPH.
SUNDAY'S WIND TICK BACK A NOTCH, WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSER TO 30
MPH. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS FOR DESERT VALLEYS AND AS LOW AS THE
-20'S FOR HIGH VALLEY FLOORS AND MOUNTAIN TOWNS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS.
BUT, THIS IS ONLY ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES TRICKLING DOWN THE
BROADENING TROUGH'S LEADING EDGE. ROUND TWO IS ON TRACK FOR A DEEPER
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. AS A RESULT, THIS
PROVIDES A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR DRYING SW RANGES. OF COURSE, MINOR DETAILS BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE, SO DON'T GET TOO HUNG UP ON SNOW
PROBS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ELEMENTS WHICH ARE MUCH MORE DECIPHERABLE
ARE THE COLD AIR MASS SAGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND KEEP
DROPPING BEHIND WAVE TWO. FOR NOW, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE
PROGGED TO BE THE COLDEST OUT OF OUR 7 DAY FORECAST, WITH OUR HIGH
VALLEY COLD POOLS (AKA GUNNISON, UPPER YAMPA...) DROPPING DOWN TO -
25 TO -35 DEGREES! THOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL SCOUR THROUGH OUR PESKY
INVERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WE EXPECT COLD AIR SETTLING BACK IN
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO TO REFORM SAID INVERSIONS AND TRAP
SEVERAL REGIONS UNDER THIS BONE CHILLING REGIME. PLEASE STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THIS WEEKEND'S AND EARLY NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FLIRTING WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS, AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXTREME COLD WARNING THRESHOLDS. WE
MAY BE TALKING DAYS 6 OR 7 HERE, BUT NBM'S MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
DIPS DOWN TO AS LOW AS -30 FOR THE UPPER YAMPA RIVER VALLEY AND -37
FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A HINT OF LOCAL INFLUENCES
POSSIBLY PUSHING A LOWER CIG OVER KHDN...KEGE AND KGUC EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT LATEST WEBCAM SHOTS ARE NICE AND CLEAR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...TGJT
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