171
FXUS65 KGJT 162311
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES BY THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW
AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
- A STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT TEMPERATURES ON THIS SIDE
ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL-BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF DROPPING WELL-BELOW ZERO IN MANY MOUNTAIN
AND HIGH VALLEY/BASIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND 2 PM SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE
OVERACHIEVING IN MOST LOCATIONS AS NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE PROVIDING A NICE REPRIEVE FROM AN
OTHERWISE CHILLY WEEK. ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS ON TAP TOMORROW BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT USHERS IN A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GUNNISON VALLEY CONTINUES TO
BE THE EXCEPTION WITH STRONG INVERSIONS TRAPPING COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES
OUR FORECAST AREA, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH A BULK OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTIANS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY OVER THE PARK AND
ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4-8" LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. THE PARK RANGE HAS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH A 32%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT MT. WERNER. QPF
ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW AND HIGH SLRS.
TRAVEL WITH CAUTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS SLIPPERY TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY
OVER OUR AREA WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS A
STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING LEAVING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE STEEP AND ANY MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO GET RUNG OUT. RATES SHOULD NOT GET TOO
HIGH BUT THE SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT AN EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. THE
NORTHERN SLOPES WILL BE FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW BECOMES RATHER ISOLATED, BUT
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FAIRLY COLD MORNING, BUT IF ANY CLOUDS
HANG AROUND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY. THE -20C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB SUPPORT MANY LOCATIONS
BELOW ZERO, WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST VALUES APPROACHING
-30F ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ARRIVING
HERE ON MONDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MEANS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWS IS
MEDIUM AT BEST AT THIS STAGE. THAT SECONDARY WAVE MAY SPARK
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH MEANS
MORE CLOUDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. AS FOR NOW THE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
MINOR, BUT THE SNOW WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT, SO SOMETHING TO
WATCH. THE POTENCY OF THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. I THINK
REGARDLESS SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL BE STUCK UNDER VERY
STRONG INVERSIONS, SO IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THEN TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS. WIND CHILL VALUES
FOR MOST SPOTS WILL BE BELOW ZERO AND THE COLDEST READINGS
COULD BE AS LOW AS -40F. A VERY SLIGHT WARM UP OCCURS MID WEEK,
BUT ADDITIONAL WAVES LOOK TO KEEP THE NORTHERLY FLOW, DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US, IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS, AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN TERMINALS, KDRO IN PARTICULAR, COULD SEE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ004.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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