955
FXUS65 KGJT 192251
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
351 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHT.
- INCREASED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO MODERATE, THOUGH THEY
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
- CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BRING MARKEDLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SO COLD IN FACT, THAT AN EXTREME
COLD WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO.
- TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS EARLY STAGE, LIFT
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHICS AND OVERRUNNING OF SURFACE
COLD POOLS. MEANWHILE, HIGHS TODAY WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC SURGE WHICH ARRIVED
ON SATURDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING THEN OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE BORDER
MONDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS AND MID-LEVEL LIFT WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHERN RANGES.
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THE COLD AIRMASS HAS LIMITED
CAPACITY TO HOLD MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT ROUGHLY 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUDS COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOWS TO MODERATE TONIGHT,
BUT EXPECTED LOWS WILL STILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, JUST NOT AS
COLD AS THOSE RECORDED LAST NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING
CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS ANTICIPATED AND AS A RESULT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR ARE EXPECTED AS ARCTIC AIR LINGERS OVER THE AREA. WIND
COMBINED WITH COLD MAY BRING EXTREME WIND CHILLS IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FLOW WILL BE
NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY, DROPPING ALREADY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVERAGE, WHICH WOULD HELP TO MITIGATE
THESE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES, LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AS
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THUS, STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IS IN PLACE FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN, UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN, CENTRAL YAMPA
RIVER BASIN, AND MANY WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAIN AREAS DUE TO
WIND CHILL FORECASTS OF NEAR 35 BELOW OR COLDER. IF YOU MUST GO
OUTSIDE DURING THIS PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES, BE SURE
TO DRESS IN LAYERS AND COVER ALL EXPOSED SKIN. BEYOND TUESDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL AS FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY. BY FRIDAY MUCH OF
OUR CWA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES, KEEPING OUR CWA GENERALLY DRY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY, BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES CURRENTLY
LEAVE LITTLE TO BE SAID WITH CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
LOW AND MID CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS ILS
BREAKPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET AT KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KTEX,
KGUC, AND KHDN. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
KASE, KTEX, AND KHDN ARE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE
IMPACTED BY SNOWFALL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
MOST SITES, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN TO MVFR OR IFR AT
SITES IMPACTED BY LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ002-005-014.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ014.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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