324
FXUS65 KGJT 160452
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLAT TOPS. WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOW.
- REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS
AND SNOW, WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE TURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS PICKED
UP THIS DISTURBANCE WELL AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES,
INSTABILITY IS BEING RELEASED ALLOWING FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW TO
CONTINUE. THE HRRR AND NAMNEST ARE BOTH PERFORMING WELL WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS SNOW WITH BOTH ALSO SHOWING A
MARKED DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY AFTER 6PM THIS EVENING. THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM AS WELL SO DON'T SEE
ANY NEED TO PULL DOWN THESE HIGHLIGHTS EARLY. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS HAS FINALLY STARTED LIFTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND THOSE AREAS SEEING PEEKS OF SUN WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES AS MIXING BRINGS DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, STRETCHING UP INTO NEVADA, EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE AND WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK IT DOWN CAUSING THE JET TO BECOME
MORE MERIDIONAL IN NATURE. HOPE YOU FOLKS IN AND AROUND
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS LIKE SNOW BECAUSE THE NEXT ROUND STARTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY WEAK AR WILL MAKE IT TO OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, FLAT TOPS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE WEST TO EAST NATURE OF THE JET WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO ALSO OCCUR AS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE PARK RANGE AND ELKHEADS WITH 6 TO
12 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE FLAT TOPS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE AMOUNTS DOES REMAIN HOWEVER SO THESE
AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE. WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS STILL IN EFFECT,
OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THOSE 3 ZONES VALID FROM
11AM SUNDAY THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY. MAY ALSO NEED TO ISSUE FOR
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS PROPER AS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING POSSIBLY 6
INCHES FALLING IN TOWN. AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL
SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THEY DAY PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE, SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SAN JUANS AND
OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS BUT AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 2 TO 4
INCHES. AS FAR AS HIGHS ARE CONCERNED, MOST AREAS WILL SEE NEAR
NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THOSE AREAS SEEING
THE PRECIP. THEY WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE PASSAGE OF TWO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HIGHLIGHTS THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.
THE FIRST ADVECTS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY
BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MARGINAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND JET DYNAMICS TEAM UP TO CREATE ASCENT FOR
THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PWATS LEFT BEHIND AFTER SUNDAY'S MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING PASSES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS ALSO WHEN WE EXPECT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO PICK UP IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
RATES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE DIVIDE.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIRMASS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE
FORCING OR THE MOISTURE WINS OUT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD
HALT ACCUMULATIONS EARLIER THAT THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR.
AFTER A QUIETER WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE STALLING OUT
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS STRONGEST WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WAVE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WEAK FORCING AND THE SHORT
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. AT
THIS TIME THE LATE-WEEK WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE WEAKER OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS ON DECK FOR THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS THAT SHOULD END BY 09Z. THERE
ARE SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS IN MANY VALLEYS EAST OF THE KHDN-KTEX
LINE THAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE, SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ARE SCATTERING OUT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND AREAS OF LLWS AT THE MOUNTAIN
SITES BEFORE 14Z AND AFTER 00Z. THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 16Z SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
IMPACTS AT KHDN BEGINNING AROUND 18Z, KEGE, KASE AND KRIL AFTER
21Z, AND KGUC AFTER 00Z WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...DB
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