028
FXUS65 KGJT 161111
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS
AND SNOW, WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY AIR IS FILTERING FROM THE NORTH, WHICH IS
PREVENTING FOG FROM DEVELOPING AFTER THE AR SOAKING. THOSE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW SHOULD COOL EFFICIENTLY THIS MORNING.
SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT CLOUDS INCREASE
THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NOTHING LIKE THE LAST AR, BUT
THIS PLUME WILL RANGE FROM 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE JET
USHERING IN THIS MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHICS. BY MID AFTERNOON
A SWATH OF SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST HITTING AREAS
NORTH OF I-70 INDUCING AROUND VAIL. THIS EVENING THE MOISTURE
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ALLOWING SNOW HIT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
TROUGH DRIVING THIS EVENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHEARING OUT
INTO SEVERAL SMALL WAVES THAT MAY ENHANCE THE LIFT AT TIMES. ONE
OF THESE WEAK WAVES MAY PASS OVER TOMORROW, THEREFORE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS STEAMBOAT AND VAIL. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
THE DYNAMIC LIFT INCREASES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA CAUSING SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
ON MONDAY NIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ONGOING IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
THIS EVENT, WHICH WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
IS IN PART DRIVEN BY MOISTURE FROM A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HOWEVER, PWAT ANOMALIES DURING THIS EVENT PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
FALL CLOSER TO 120-150% OF NORMAL BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE SNOWFALL RATES TO DROP MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER NOTABLE CHANGE OCCURRING MONDAY
NIGHT IS THAT SNOWFALL, WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE FALLING IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UP UNTIL THIS POINT, SHOULD SPREAD TO
THE SAN JUANS AS WELL. THIS TRANSITION IS A PRODUCT OF INCREASED
FORCING ACROSS THE CWA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH
OUR REGION. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN FORCING, THE DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO KEEP SNOWFALL GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THIS EVENT ENDS, SIGNIFICANT SNOW
TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR PROVIDES FOR QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVES OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SEEMS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WOULD KEEP
SNOW TOTALS PRETTY LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE INTO KHDN AROUND 18-21Z AND CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KASE AFTER 00-03Z ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THERE. ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KEGE AND KRIL TONIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ010-013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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