101
FXUS65 KGJT 170433
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW HAS ARRIVED MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
- REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE HAS
ARRIVED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON USHERING IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. PWAT
VALUES OF 150-200% PERCENT OF NORMAL ARE PROJECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING TO 125-150% OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIFT ALONG THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT GRADIENT AND ITS ACCOMPANYING JET WORK TO ENHANCE
THE INITIAL PUSH OF SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS WILL
SWITCH OVER TO RELY PRIMARILY OROGRAPHIC LIFT TONIGHT.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE THE
DRIVER OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. RATES WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING AS PWAT VALUES FALL TO 100-125% OF NORMAL.
THIS DURATION OF THE STORM HOLDS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES
TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT TOPS, ELKHEAD, AND
PARK MOUNTAINS WITH 8-16" OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE PARK RANGE COULD MEASURE
IN AT UPWARDS OF 30" BY THE END OF THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 6-
12" OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALL OF THE
AFORMENTIONED LOCATIONS COULD ALSO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. IMPACTS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR LOOK TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TRAVEL OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS TO VERY DIFFICULT SO USE
CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUT AND ABOUT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW FALLING FOR THE CO MOUNTAINS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THE BEST FORCING AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WEAK BUT
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALL LEND
THEMSELVES TO KEEP THIS LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO
4 INCHES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN JUANS...MAYBE A BIT MORE
FOR THE PARK RANGE. A QUICK RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY BUT
THE JET STREAM WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL STARTS
BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO EASTERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT, ALBEIT RATHER WEAK, STARTS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY THANKS TO A 115KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD BUT DESPITE THE
SPEED, 6 TO 12 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE ELKHEADS, PARK RANGE,
AND FLAT TOPS. 2 TO 5 INCHES LOOKS PROBABLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE SAN JUANS. ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THIS TIME LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE...THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE
DETERMINISTIC EC ISN'T AS GUNG HO AND WHILE IT DOES BRING IN SOME
PRECIP, COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE GFS THOUGH
THE TIMING IS VERY SIMILAR.
FOR THOSE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PREDICTED SNOW, VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND NORMAL...A BIT
BELOW, A BIT ABOVE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMUP
WILL OCCUR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
FAST MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP SNOW PINNED
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO PROLONGED INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT KHDN...KASE
AND KEGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
MVFR AT KVEL WITH PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE VFR IS FORECAST AT THE
REMAINING FORECAST TERMINALS. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ010.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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