143
FXUS65 KGJT 171202
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
502 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FOCUS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT THOSE SHOWERS
EXPAND TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- IN GENERAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 4-12 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 20 INCHES IN THE PARK RANGE.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WOULD BE VERY LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO INCREASED RATES
AND BLOWING SNOW.
- THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASE TOMORROW, BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THAT HAS PWAT VALUES THAT RANGE
FROM 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WE ARE SITUATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE JET THAT ADVECTED THAT MOISTURE HERE, AND GIVEN THAT POSITION
ARE LIKELY GETTING SOME LIFT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE OTHER
FORCING MECHANISM AT PLAY HERE IS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS EVENT, WHICH IS SHEARING OUT INTO SEVERAL WEAKER WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME OF THOSE LOOK TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT AS WELL. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. SOME EVEN SHOW A BROAD SNOW BAND
OVER THE HIGHWAY 40 CORRIDOR THAT LASTS UNTIL LATE MORNING.
RATES COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY UNDER THAT BAND. THEREFORE
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE STEAMBOAT AREA.
LATER TODAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN. WE LOSE JET SUPPORT, BUT KEEP THE
MIDLEVEL ENERGY STREAMING OVER THE REGION. HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON DRIVEN BY
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS COULD MEAN HIT OR MISS ACCUMULATING
SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE BANDS DEVELOP. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD VARY
OVER SHORT DISTANCES TOO. ALSO, THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS RATHER
HIGH FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MEANS
BLOWING SNOW AND INCREASED RATES COULD CAUSE VERY LOW VISIBILITY
SITUATIONS. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS END UP AS
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. FOR
THESE PLACES LIGHT SNOW MAY MELT, BUT UNDER A HEAVY BAND IT COULD
ACCUMULATE. THE MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS TO EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA. SNOW TOTALS HAVE GONE UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, SO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THERE. TOMORROW THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THEREFORE
SHOWER COVERAGE GRADUALLY DECREASES. A WEAK WAVE DROPPING OUT
OF MONTANA AND WYOMING MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND KEEP
SHOWERS GOING THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEXT EVENT ON THURSDAY, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THIS LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW, WHICH IS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL BE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. ON THURSDAY MORNING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST, PROVIDING SOME
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW. IN ADDITION, ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, THE TIMING OF
THE GREATEST PWAT ANOMALIES FROM THIS MODEST MOISTURE PLUME (150-
175% OF NORMAL) IS A BIT MISALIGNED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING.
WHEN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST, PWAT ANOMALIES
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 125-150% OF NORMAL, WHICH MAY LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.
CURRENTLY, THIS EVENT LOOKS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS 2
TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE SAN JUANS.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER,
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
CURRENTLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KVEL.
DUE TO THE PASSING WINTER STORM THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AT
KASE, KEGE, KGUC, KHDN, AND POTENTIALLY KRIL AND KTEX AS WELL.
POOR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOR ALL OTHER SITES VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT
KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KMTJ, KTEX, KGUC, AND KHDN. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LLWS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ005-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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