787
FXUS65 KGJT 172216
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
316 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LULLS IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
- SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CAUSE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY DROP
VISIBILITIES.
- SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
TOMORROW THOUGH THE PARK RANGE AND ELKHEADS WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD WHILE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS ALSO DECREASING SOME ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PLENTY OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THOSE CONDITIONS IMPROVING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. HAVING SAID THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW. FURTHER UPSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED TO
START MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, SEVERAL VORT MAXES
WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND ENOUGH SHOULD REMAIN TO
ALLOW MORE SNOWFALL. FURTHERMORE, AS WE TEND TO SEE IN THESE
TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTS, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE
MIDLEVELS AND WITH THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS, SOME OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS
FORMING. LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING SOME HEAVY SNOW UNDER THESE
CELLS. THE SAME IS HAPPENING IN CENTRAL UTAH WITH A LIGHTNING
STRIKE NOTED THERE. IT'S A HODGE PODGE BUT WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, DON'T
FEEL COMFORTABLE DROPPING ANY HIGHLIGHTS JUST YET SO THEY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. HAVING SAID THAT, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
SOME HIGHLIGHTS DO GET PULLED DOWN EARLY IF SNOWFALL DOESN'T
MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN
END IN THE MORNING THOUGH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OF NOTE, NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE
FOR THE PARK RANGE AND ELKHEADS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW
POSSIBLE PER 6 HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT RISES
INDICATE THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WHICH
WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE
COLORADO VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
AFTER A QUIET, SEASONABLE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS (TIMING, AMOUNTS, STORM TRACK) IS LOW.
THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
IN ENS AND GEPS WHILE THE GEFS STALLS OUT AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE UPON
REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW AT THIS POINT IS
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH THE CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RANGE BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE
WHICH SOLUTION THE MODELS CONVERGE UPON.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LEADING TO THE RETURN OF WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MID, TO OCCASIONALLY LOW, LEVEL CEILINGS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT MOVES OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VIS. KHDN, KEGE, AND KASE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AROUND 00Z,
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 06Z. KTEX MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE MIDLEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES AS IT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ005-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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