518
FXUS65 KGJT 181746
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM
MST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SAN JUAN, WEST
ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM MST.
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SNOW RATES HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE AREA IN THE
ADVISORIES. THEREFORE, ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
AS MODELS HAD PREDICTED A SHORT WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW
TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHILE LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, CLOUD COVER KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILDER SIDE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
SNOWFALL RATES DO NOT WARRANT HOLDING ONTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING BEYOND 12Z SO EXPIRATION TIME APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LATEST QPF FOR THOSE NORTHERN RANGES CAME UP IN THE LATEST
BLENDS AND LOOKING AT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE. CONSEQUENTLY, BACKED QPF DOWN SOME, BUT
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH 12Z/WED STILL APPROACHES ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, HELD OFF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN CONCERNS
WITH WPC'S FORECAST AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT GAUGE WHETHER
ADVISORY IS NEEDED. MEANWHILE, TO THE SOUTH, SUBSIDENCE WILL
BRING AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN COLDER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY, OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO SWEEP OVER THOSE RANGES. THE
MOISTURE TAP FINALLY TURNS OFF ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT TURN COLDER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVER ALL BUT NORTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION, MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND MIXING, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE PACNW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START UP FOR OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD SOUTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING TO APPROXIMATELY THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DELIVERING ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD AIR
IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OUT OF REACH FOR THE WEST
SLOPE, BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL COALESCE TO DELIVER
ANOTHER MEASURABLE SNOWFALL EVENT TO THE PARK RANGE AND FLAT
TOPS, WHERE EARLY ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 5-10 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW. MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET SOUTH OF I-70, BUT THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT ANOTHER COATING, WITH THE SAN JUANS
SQUEAKING BY ON THE LEFTOVERS OF ANOTHER NORTHERLY SYSTEM.
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT
IN THE MOISTURE STARVED ENVIRONMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS
RIDGE ON THE FLAT AND BROAD SIDE, WITH ANOTHER PACNW WAVE
CHIPPING AWAY AT THE RIDGE ON MONDAY. GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME
WEAK PRECIPITATION OVER THE DIRTY RIDGE MONDAY, BUT THE OTHER
MODELS ARE KEEPING A STURDIER RIDGE IN PLACE. THIS WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BACK UP AROUND THE REGION, WITH HIGHS NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. THE PERSISTENT MILD PATTERN ENVELOPING
THE WEST THIS WINTER IS HARD TO BET AGAINST A WEEK OUT, WHEN
WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THIS TOO MANY TIMES TO COUNT. THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL KEEP US WATCHING FOR
SHORTWAVES CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KHDN DURING THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. ELSEWHERE,
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 9 TO 14 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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