905
FXUS65 KGJT 182148
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
248 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR-NORMAL, BUT BEGIN TO WARM STARTING
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
WHILE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED UNDER COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE MORE FAVORED NORTHERN RANGES. THE PARK RANGE IS MOST FAVORED,
EXPECTING TO SEE ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE
THE REMAINING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO SEE A
TRACE TO MAYBE 2 INCHES UP HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES, OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND FINALLY TURNING OFF THE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
WHILE THE WESTERN SLOPE IS UNDER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT
STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF I-70,
INCLUDING THE EASTERN UINTAS, AND THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD, FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, AS DISCUSSED IN
THE LONG TERM SECTION. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO, THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD, WITH OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY
CONVERGED ON A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD ALSO SEE UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH,
VALLEYS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AFTER SUNDOWN.
THE WSSI-P IS SUGGESTING UP TO A 20% CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT WE WELCOME THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LEADING TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LESS KEEN ON THIS SOLUTION. AS
A RESULT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE
WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KHDN DURING THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. ELSEWHERE,
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 9 TO 14 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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