561
FXUS65 KGJT 182340
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR-NORMAL, BUT BEGIN TO WARM
STARTING SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
WHILE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED
UNDER COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE MORE FAVORED NORTHERN RANGES. THE
PARK RANGE IS MOST FAVORED, EXPECTING TO SEE ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE THE REMAINING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO SEE A TRACE TO MAYBE 2 INCHES
UP HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LINGER, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES, OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND FINALLY TURNING OFF THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RUN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
WHILE THE WESTERN SLOPE IS UNDER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT
STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF I-70, INCLUDING THE EASTERN UINTAS, AND THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
SOUTHWARD, FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO, THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD, WITH OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS HAVE
SEEMINGLY CONVERGED ON A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO A FEW INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD ALSO SEE UP TO AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH, VALLEYS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AFTER SUNDOWN. THE WSSI-P IS SUGGESTING UP TO
A 20% CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT WE WELCOME THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LEADING TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LESS
KEEN ON THIS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SOME INSTABILITY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. BKN CIGS NEAR ILS BREAKPOINTS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES AND ALONG THE DIVIDE, INCLUDING KHDN, KGUC, KEGE
AND KASE. CIGS AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
SKIES BECOMING FEW TO SCT FOR WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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